By Barçın Yinanç
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, declined President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s invitation to attend the summit of the Organization of Turkic States, scheduled for the day after Turkey’s Republic Day, marking one of the biggest crises in the two countries' close relationship.
Despite Ankara’s visible steps to defuse the recent tension, his refusal to come on a date carrying symbolic importance for Turkey attests to the changing dynamics in the relationship since the military victory over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020.
No doubt, the recent tension goes beyond the so-called “headscarf crisis” that erupted following the reaction shown from certain circles in Turkey to the Aliyev government’s introduction of stricter uniform regulations prohibiting clothing considered incompatible with secular education.
Although Turkish officials denied that the remarks were directed at Baku, Erdoğan’s criticism of school headscarf bans in his address to the UN General Assembly (UNGA) was perceived in Azerbaijan as an implicit rebuke of its recent decision.
Aliyev’s statement on Oct. 2 was interpreted as a direct warning against Turkey interfering in Azerbaijan’s domestic affairs. His additional remarks in the same statement that Azerbaijan conducts its foreign policy independently and does not need anyone’s assistance or patronage showed an accumulation of irritation with how Ankara views its relationship with Baku.
ISRAEL: A THORN IN THE RELATIONSHIP
Azerbaijan’s strategic relationship with Israel remains a critical thorn in relations with Ankara. Israel’s support to Baku in addition to that of Ankara, undoubtedly played an important role in Azerbaijan’s military victories against Armenia. Baku likely came under behind-the-scenes pressure from Ankara, especially after the deadly war in Gaza.
Erdoğan’s harsh criticisms, especially of Western governments' support for Israel and his repeated calls on Muslim-majority countries to take stronger action, did not go unnoticed in Baku.
Azerbaijan also faced criticism by some media outlets and social media users after its representative remained in the UNGA during Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech while dozens of other delegations walked out in protest.
“Relations with Israel are critical for Azerbaijan; it is far away to be an enemy; yet strong enough to provide support,” a retired ambassador knowledgeable on the Caucasus and Central Asia told me. Baku needs to counterbalance Russia, India, China and Iran therefore would like to see the US in the region. “Israel holds the key to the US in their eyes,” he added.
DIFFICULT TRIANGLE BETWEEN THE TRIO
The complications in the Turkey-Azerbaijan-Israel equation was recently again under spotlight.
Two years ago, Turkey had denied Israeli President Isaac Herzog's request to use its airspace for his flight to attend the COP29 climate summit in Baku.
Herzog bypassed the ban this month by flying on a commercial Azerbaijan Airlines jet to attend the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA). Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who attended the conference, walked out when Herzog took the stage to speak, followed by some other Arab countries.
Some Azerbaijani circles went as far as asking for his resignation. It was however Presidential advisor Oktay Saral, who had criticized the “headscarf ban,” that resigned on Oct. 26, a move that followed Azerbaijan’s decision to declare 31 Turkish citizens persona non grata on Oct 21. Some activists and journalists were also detained in Turkey for insulting a foreign leader.
The two capitals succeeded in taking control of occasional flare ups, such as the one in 2024 when Erdoğan threatened the Israeli regime with military intervention, saying that, 'As we entered Karabakh and also Libya, we may do the same to them.”
This time around, despite Ankara’s visible efforts to ease the tension, Aliyev kept doubling down.
“I would not be surprised if Israel is also playing a role in provoking Baku,” said an expert who asked to remain anonymous. The expert did not obviously over simplify the issue by finger pointing at the Israeli government. Indeed, he believes the over confidence gained by Aliyev following military victories is also at the root of the problem. Baku does not want to be treated as the “little brother,” by the “older brother.”
The change of attitude is not limited to its approach to Ankara. Aliyev considers Azerbaijan as a middle power set to play important roles in its region.
“Azerbaijan is reassessing its threat perceptions as it redefines its foreign policy and is developing a new sense of agency in its international relations,” according to a policy note published by the think tank Global Academy.
“Azerbaijan’s foreign policy is evolving from the balancing policy it pursued for a long period after independence within a single geopolitical framework centered on Russia, Iran, and the Turkey–West axis towards a more multidimensional and assertive approach that emphasizes strategic partnerships, draws on its multiple identities, and prioritises national interests,” the note penned by Ayça Ergun and Mustafa Aydın read.
In that respect it is worth noting that despite the close relationship between Azerbaijan and Pakistan which prompted India to become one of the biggest weapons providers to Armenia, the Indian External Affairs Minister visited Baku, on Oct. 23. A high level military delegation from the UAE was also in Baku this month.
TURKEY BEING OVERLY ACCOMMODATING
Ankara’s position, which can be seen as being overly accommodating towards Azerbaijan, certainly does not stem from its understanding or acceptance of Baku’s new foreign policy assertiveness. Economic relations can partly explain it since Azerbaijan became one the biggest foreign investors in Turkey. Beginning in the 2010’s, Azerbaijan has built an effective lobby in Turkey, which no doubt led a pro-AKP campaign during elections.
An ultranationalist, Sinan Oğan, known to be close to Azerbaijan, backed Erdoğan in the runoff of the 2023 presidential election after being eliminated in the first round. While Ankara keeps bragging, even behind closed doors, about its support to Azerbaijan in its early days of independence and its military assistance in the Karabagh conflict, Baku wants its economic and political support to be recognized by Turkey.
Some believe Turkey’s conciliatory stance will strengthen Aliyev’s uncompromising attitude. Meanwhile, the reciprocal insults on the two countries' social media can leave many to wonder, to what degree the motto one nation two states really reflects reality.
Still, the retired ambassador recalled the authoritarian nature of the regime in both countries, arguing that both leaderships are not in full alignment with their societies.
