By Nergis Demirkaya
In the CHP, rapidly heading toward a split after the absolute nullity ruling, one of the key questions people are looking to answer is what stance Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş will take. Cast as one of the 'two forwards' by ousted CHP Chair Özgür Özel in the presidential-candidacy debate — a football metaphor for a goal-scoring player — Yavaş's decision has the potential to affect both the balance of power among CHP factions and the opposition's electoral strategy.
The CHP, which was the winner in the 2024 local elections, had planned to contest the 2028 presidential race with either Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu or Yavaş as its candidate. İmamoğlu, chosen through a primary, began losing ground as dozens of court cases were opened against him and his university diploma was revoked, shifting attention toward Yavaş. But this discussion was upended after the absolute nullity ruling. While the CHP was working out how to unite the opposition and draw votes from the governing coalition's voter base, the party is now on the verge of a split.
According to the sources close to him, the 'second forward Yavaş” first took a stand on principle in the face of this new situation. Yavaş, a lawyer by profession, was outspoken against the nullity ruling, calling it a violation of the laws governing political parties and elections that damaged democracy. That’s why his decision to join one of the first rallies of Özel at Ankara’s Güvenpark was evaluated not as taking sides but as an objection to what he saw as an unlawful act. Afterward, Yavaş also worked to preserve CHP's institutional identity and keep the party unified.
That reading appears largely accurate. In his remarks at Güvenpark, Yavaş did not take sides, calling instead for 'unity and solidarity.' Urging that a party congress be held as soon as possible, he said: 'Forget dividing the party — let's do the opposite and start working to bring the whole opposition together, so that we can spoil this game. That's our shared responsibility.'
Another notable incident by Yavaş came during a group speech that Kılıçdaroğlu and Özel had both planned to deliver in parliament on the same day, at the same hour. Yavaş played a critical role in defusing a standoff in which the two sides would have come almost face to face. Addressing Kılıçdaroğlu on social media as a party elder, Yavaş urged for caution in 'protecting the party's institutional identity' and ensuring that 'the CHP, our shared home, is not harmed.' Kılıçdaroğlu responded by tagging Yavaş's message, writing that 'now is a time to stand shoulder to shoulder, not to fight,' and drew his supporters to party headquarters from the parliament.
WAIT AND SEE
But these calls did not resolve the main problem. The call for an extraordinary congress, presented as the way out of the crisis, went unanswered. A full-scale purge was launched against Özel and his management team at the party’s headquarters. As the party moved rapidly toward a split, Yavaş fell silent.
According to sources close to Yavaş, this silence reflects a 'wait and see' approach. Despite the rift among the CHP voters after the nullity ruling, sources speaking to Turkey in Depth pointed out that Yavaş retains support across the CHP electorate as a whole, that he stands to draw strong backing from nationalist parties — especially the İYİ and Zafer Parties — and that he has the potential to gain votes even from supporters of the AKP-MHP-led People's Alliance. As to whether this election can be won on nationalist votes alone, without the Kurdish vote — that's a question for another piece.
Those who know Yavaş well are familiar with his reputation as a cautious politician who avoids risk. It's clear he is aware how difficult it would be to reach 50 + 1 percent with a divided CHP. A politician close to Yavaş put it this way: 'Yavaş worked to keep the party from splitting. But if a split does happen, there's a chance he distances himself from both sides and stays independent. He won't get drawn into candidacy debates until the presidential race is actually underway, and he'll keep his silence until then.”
He then defined his path: “He won't rush; he'll watch how things develop and may step up if he sees signs of the CHP coming together. But if things get worse, he'll leave politics after his term as mayor.'
Another source from Yavaş's inner team suggests that his 'wait and see' stance may itself be a strategic move. This source, who points to close coordination between Yavaş and Özel, says that if the CHP split spreads to municipal councils, some municipalities risk shifting to the AKP. Because of that, if Özel forms a new party, he will not immediately call on mayors to join him. The same source said: 'Right now, Yavaş has the potential to be every faction's candidate within the CHP. The nationalist parties' interest in him is plain to see. Wherever Yavaş ends up — staying or leaving — he's a politician who adds strength. That's why he won't rush. He'll steer clear of any process that wears him down. The legal process around the nullity ruling also matters a great deal. In particular, he'll wait for the Court of Cassation's ruling.'
QUESTIONS AWAITING YAVAŞ AND ÖZEL?
The CHP, thrown into complete disarray after the nullity ruling, sees a new development almost daily. From today's vantage point, Yavaş's chances of running for president look strong. But many new questions and complications could still emerge before tomorrow.
Will Özgür Özel, who wants to press on by forming a new party, be allowed to continue in politics? Will the new legislative session open with immunity files against him? Will Özel and his inner circle be arrested? And could operations similar to those that cost İmamoğlu his candidacy be turned against Mansur Yavaş as well? How would Yavaş respond if faced with such moves?
Unfortunately, in Ankara, there are far more questions than answers when it comes to what's happening inside the CHP. And these questions don't look likely to be answered anytime soon.
