By Cengiz K. Fırat
The Central Asian Republics of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have been on the radar of those who follow international relations due to two recent developments.
Traditionally, the Central Asian Republics, rich in natural resources in a geo-strategic location, have been in the Russian sphere of influence and Russia still tries to exert dominance over them. However, nearly all have started to diversify their relations with third countries and regional groupings such as China, the U.S., the EU and Turkey.
The Chinese have been involved mainly economically with heavy investments around the Belt and Road Initiative and trade, but they have also been interested in the mineral and rare earth elements in this region. Lately, the Chinese have started making forays into the lucrative arms market – which was an area under heavy Russian influence and control. Let's not forget that nearly all of Turkmenistan’s gas goes directly to China, fueling its ever-growing demand for energy.
The Turks too have been extending their footprint in these countries through economic and trade links. Turkey’s main advantage, however, lies in its close ethnic and cultural ties with the Turkic nations—except for Tajikistan, which is culturally and ethnically more aligned with Iran.
Turkish public and private sector involvement can clearly be seen in all sectors in the region and lately also includes the minerals and arms industry. There is even an ongoing process to adopt a common alphabet based largely on the Turkish/Latin inspired one. This would fundamentally shift educational and cultural developments in the region, further upsetting Russia, which was happy to see Russian remain the region’s second language usually preferred by elites and business.
The U.S. and the EU have tended to regard the Central Asian Republics as far away, less developed, small states that were mainly in the Russian backyard. Approaching these states with an agenda seeking only to “bring democracy, human rights and the rule of law” and thereby undermine Russian authoritarian influence did not work well in comparison to the pragmatic and result-oriented approach taken by Russia, China and Turkey.
CHANGING DYNAMICS
However, as the war in Ukraine intensified and the global competition between the U.S. and China became openly and ruthlessly clear, the U.S. and the EU seem to have decided to take a more practical approach vis-à-vis these countries. They seem to be concentrating on: i) developing closer relations, ii) trying to undermine Russian and Chinese economic interests, iii) becoming a player in the East-West trade and energy routes, and iv) investing in the rare earths and minerals sectors of these countries.
Within this context the two-day summit between the Central Asian Republics and the EU on April 3-4 in Samarkand produced no major announcements. The main “deliverable” of the meeting, according to the EU, is a €12 billion package to help expand trade transit routes, develop the mining sector, address water and climate issues and promote digital connectivity.
It is unclear whether this assistance package is intertwined in any way with €10 billion in development aid announced at the Global Gateway Investors Forum in early 2024. In addition, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is working on a project pipeline of approximately €7-8 billion until 2027. Details about the various assistance projects were scant.
The joint statement issued by Central Asian and EU leaders was mainly a 20-point recitation of aspirations and already established areas of joint interest. There was little in the document that could be seen as advancing specific projects.
ANKARA’S SILENCE
However, this €12 billion package seems to have upset Turkey or, for the time being the Turkish public opinion, as these countries agreed to recognise the Greek Cypriots as the Republic of Cyprus and some have even opened embassies in the southern part of the island. Such steps close the door on the recognition of Northern Cyprus. We have yet to hear the response of the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which has remained conspicuously silent on the matter.
Since coming to power in January, the Trump administration’s policy toward Central Asia has fixated on critical minerals and nuclear energy.
It appears that the Trump administration’s single-minded pursuit of critical minerals is starting to bear fruit in Central Asia. According to an Uzbek government statement of April 9, meetings in Washington involving Uzbek Investment Ministry officials and U.S. business executives yielded several agreements covering the exploration, extraction and processing of minerals in the Central Asian state. The deals also reportedly cover the provision of innovative U.S. technologies to Tashkent, and the training of Uzbek specialists.
The recent advances made by the U.S. in Uzbekistan’s mining and nuclear power sectors coincide with Tashkent’s deepening cooperation with China in the development of renewable energy capacity. Two Chinese companies recently signed contracts to build a solar and a wind farm in Uzbekistan with a total generating capacity of 1.5 gigawatts (China is also helping to finance the projects).
The U.S. quest for rare earths in Central Asia is far from limited to Uzbekistan. Top U.S. officials in the region say the U.S. is committed to cooperating with Kazakhstan in this vital sector to facilitate investment, apply advanced technology, and strengthen economic and strategic ties.
WHAT CAN TURKEY DO?
Looking at these developments, it is clear that both the U.S. and the EU have decided to engage more closely with the Central Asian Republics. The Russians and the Chinese may not be too happy with the competition and Turkey may very well be upset with its kinsmen due to their recognition of “Cyprus”.
However, in terms of geostrategic moves, Turkey can play an important role in facilitating the development of the east-west trading routes through the Middle Corridor, as this would bring obvious benefits to the EU, Turkey, Central Asian Republics and China. This corridor constitutes the shortest land route between China and the EU and bypasses Russia and Iran who themselves are developing alternative trade and development routes.
So, the great Central Asian Game is being played out. It would be mutually beneficial to the EU and Turkey to go forward together as their interests clearly align…
