By (R) Ambassador Cengiz K. Fırat
The Middle East is no longer simmering — it is boiling over. The genocide being carried out in Gaza, the attacks on the West Bank, the incursion into Syria, and the devastating assault on Lebanon have cemented one uncomfortable truth that much of the world is now willing to state openly: Israel has become the primary driver of instability in the region.
Driven by historical and religious maximalism, an appetite for regional hegemony, and a breathtaking indifference to human life, Israel’s actions have triggered a seismic realignment in the Middle East — one being felt well beyond its borders.
Washington under President Trump and the MAGA movement did not merely acquiesce to this project; they enthusiastically underwrote it. The US military struck thousands of targets across Iran in less than six weeks of war. Yet Iran did not collapse, did not surrender, and did not yield. Against all odds — militarily, economically, diplomatically — the Iranian state held.
Iranian President Pezeshkian declared victory, and Iranian state media framed the outcome as Iran forcing a ceasefire on its own terms.
FRAGILE CEASEFIRE
The ceasefire, brokered with mediation from Pakistan and agreed upon just ahead of Trump’s deadline, is a fragile and deeply ambiguous document.
Like Tehran, Washington also hailed the pause as a victory, while negotiations are expected to begin in Islamabad. Yet even as the ink was drying, Israel was conducting what it described as its largest strikes on Beirut since the start of the war, while Lebanon declared a national day of mourning. The expectations on both sides remain so fundamentally divergent that anyone hoping for a swift and lasting settlement is likely to be disappointed.
At the heart of those expectations lies one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz.
The reopening of the strait — even partially — was one of the central conditions of the ceasefire, and its restoration to full, unimpeded traffic will be among the most consequential tests of whether this pause holds.
Iran has signalled it may seek to formalise a system of fees for ships transiting the waterway, which would be a deeply contentious change to decades of precedent treating the strait as a free international passage.
Meanwhile, Israel’s strikes on Lebanon prompted Iran to halt tanker traffic once more in the hours following the ceasefire announcement. The commodity markets watching Hormuz are not merely tracking the price of oil — they are watching whether the architecture of global trade itself will be redrawn.
Iran wants a permanent settlement that includes full withdrawal of US forces from the region and the lifting of sanctions — positions that Washington will almost certainly reject. This war has not ended; it has merely paused.
The Israeli behavior here is not accidental. Israel has systematically targeted every country in the region capable of acting as a meaningful counterweight: Iraq, Syria, now Iran. And there are voices in Tel Aviv already speaking of Turkey as a future concern. Those who dismiss such talk as paranoia would do well to examine the record.
NO COMFORT ZONE FOR TURKEY
Turkey must take no comfort from the special relationship it has historically enjoyed with the United States, for when push comes to shove, Washington has shown it will ultimately prioritise Israeli strategic objectives — even at the cost of transatlantic unity.
Trump’s own remarks that NATO allies were tested during the Iran conflict and found wanting should concentrate minds in Ankara.
Against this backdrop, Turkey’s strategic imperatives become clear. According to reports, Turkey is now actively in talks with Italy to purchase and co-produce SAMP/T missile defense systems, a deal that had originally been agreed in 2018 but stalled due to French objections — objections that Paris now appears far more willing to set aside, given the transformed security environment. President Erdoğan has also inaugurated the first phase of a $3 billion missile production facility near Ankara operated by Roketsan, and Turkey’s defense exports exceeded $10 billion last year. A credible, indigenous, and diversified defense capability is not a luxury for Turkey — it is an existential necessity.
This makes the NATO Summit in Ankara July 7–8 all the more consequential. The summit will focus on strengthening defense capabilities, military readiness, and revitalising transatlantic cooperation on burden-sharing. Turkey must use this extraordinary platform to keep the alliance from fracturing entirely, while simultaneously deepening its relationships with European partners — and maintaining its channels with Russia and China as strategic insurance.
At the Hague Summit last year, all NATO members committed to increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, and European nations — sobered by American unilateralism — are now accelerating their own defense industrial programs with unprecedented urgency.
Turkey is a natural and obvious partner in this endeavor. Italy, Spain, the UK, Poland, Romania, Portugal, and Hungary are already buying or co-producing Turkish-made military equipment, laying the groundwork for far larger cooperation ahead.
The game (of control and war) in this region is not over. We will see new episodes — in Lebanon, potentially in the Gulf, and across the Eastern Mediterranean. The NATO alliance will emerge from this period more fractured than before. European states will pursue greater realpolitik. Countries across the region will increasingly hedge, building ties with both East and West. Turkey must be nimble enough to navigate all of this — keeping NATO as united as possible while never placing all its eggs in one basket.
