By Nergis Demirkaya
With the “change” endorsement from Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Özgür Özel became CHP chair and will mark his second year in office in just ten days. Many see this as the “most difficult two years” in the party’s 102-year history, as policies were revised and key positions changed. While also battling lawsuits to annul its congress and ongoing operations against municipalities, the CHP seems poised to fight on new fronts—starting with the possible lifting of parliamentary immunities—as the election calendar nears.
LEGAL BATTLE OVER THE CONGRESS
(Court rejected the case seeking to annul the CHP’s 38th Congress, citing “lack of legal standing” and “loss of subject matter,” on Oct. 24)
Let’s first look at the fronts where the CHP is currently fighting. The lawsuit seeking the annulment of the party’s Nov. 4–5, 2023 Congress is nearing its conclusion. The so-called “absolute nullity” case, which calls for reinstating former chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and his team, will be heard on Oct. 24. As in the case of the Istanbul provincial branch, there is even the risk of a court-appointed committee running the party. However, party members expect the court to close the case, arguing that after the last extraordinary congress was held without the delegates whose will was allegedly invalidated, the lawsuit should be considered moot and dismissed.
Even though this is the most optimistic scenario, more people believe that the case will be postponed. Party members who hold this view argue that the true goal of the case is to wear down the party and divide it from within. If it’s more about process than outcome, then they will find a pretext to delay it, they say.
CHP leader Özel said, “I’m not expecting an unfavorable decision.”
What he meant by unfavorable, of course, was a nullification or court-appointed committee to administer the party. But if such a verdict does come, even the ordinary grand congress that CHP is preparing for could become disputed.
A new administration appointed by the court could halt the congress entirely, triggering a fresh legal fight—this time possibly involving the Supreme Election Council (YSK), which has previously ruled that “an ongoing election process cannot be stopped” with respect to the Istanbul congress process. Such an outcome would open a new legal front for the party.
SECOND “CHANGE” CONGRESS AND ELECTION PREPARATIONS
Let’s assume a more optimistic scenario. The CHP wants to shut down these congress discussions and focus on its election campaign. To do that, it will hold the 39th Ordinary Congress on Nov. 28-30. This will be the congress that determines the team to lead the party into elections.
No rival is expected to challenge Özel at the congress. In that case, with the two extraordinary congresses also counted, he will hold the record as “the CHP leader elected four times in two years”—a move that would also render the congress lawsuits irrelevant. The upcoming congress, which could be described as the “second change congress,” is expected to restructure the Central Executive Board (MYK) and abandon the “shadow cabinet” system.
The leadership team will likely be expanded with new names and include some opposition figures to restore internal unity.
NEW CONGRESS LAWSUITS MAY EMERGE
If CHP manages to hold the planned congress, it will shift focus to explaining how it intends to govern Turkey once in power. Yet, even before it begins, the congress itself has become the subject of new lawsuits.
Former Hatay Mayor Lütfü Savaş and several delegates have already petitioned the courts to annul all elections of the coming 39th Congress. Even if the CHP escapes the earlier lawsuits, it may face new ones before election day.
A NEW FRONT IN MUNICIPAL OPERATIONS: THE INDICTMENT WAR
Following nationwide operations that saw the arrest of 17 CHP mayors, including İmamoğlu, the party is now entering a new phase of that struggle as indictments are released. The first, known as the “Aziz İhsan Aktaş” indictment, led to the imprisonment of seven mayors, including Beşiktaş’s. Another one—reportedly on the so-called “İmamoğlu crime organization”—is expected soon.
CHP views these indictments as a new front in its broader struggle, vowing to defend itself not only in courtrooms but also in public squares and rallies leading up to the elections.
DEBATE OVER CHP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE
The CHP’s presidential candidate, elected through internal primaries, İmamoğlu, faces dozens of court cases. If any of these convictions are finalized, his candidacy may become impossible.
When the election calendar is announced, if there are any legal obstacles to his candidacy, the CHP will have to nominate a new candidate. This new selection process has the potential to spark fresh debates—both within the party and across the broader opposition bloc.
In the polls, Mansur Yavaş stands out as a leading contender. His candidacy could attract support from the İYİ, Zafer, and Anahtar parties within the opposition bloc, but it might alienate the DEM Party. An Özgür Özel candidacy, on the other hand, might unsettle the nationalist parties.
Considering the 50%+1 requirement to win the elections, these delicate balances also have the potential to create new areas of tension within the party.
PARLIAMENTARY IMMUNITY NEXT TARGET
Many party executives believe that the government will open yet another front in the war to weaken and neutralize the CHP, and that this new front will be the lifting of parliamentary immunities.
In the Aziz İhsan Aktaş indictment, the names of Özgür Özel’s close ally Burhanettin Bulut and İmamoğlu’s ally Özgür Karabat come up in connection with bribery allegations.
In the upcoming İmamoğlu indictment, more names—such as Taşkın Özer and Gökhan Günaydın—may appear.
With their parliamentary majority, the AKP and MHP can process the motions to lift immunity whenever they wish. Within the CHP, there is talk that party chair Özel—who reportedly has around 50 such motions against him—could also be added to that list.
If immunities are lifted, these MPs could face arrest, as seen in the case of former HDP co-chair Selahattin Demirtaş—opening yet another front of struggle for the CHP.
Although CHP leaders say they are preparing for worst-case scenarios, they admit the government could still take steps they “never imagined.” In a political landscape where new developments emerge almost daily, the party faces a shrinking space—and an ever-expanding battlefield.
