'Whoever loses Istanbul also loses Turkey.' These are the words of President Erdoğan. When did he say it? Eight years ago. Who was he addressing? His own party members, who had begun to sense that the spell was breaking, and realize that things were not going well. If we read this statement in reverse, the conclusion is clear: 'Whoever wins Istanbul also wins Turkey.'
Since making this statement, Erdoğan has lost Istanbul twice. In the 2019 and 2024 local elections, the opposition took control of the city.
THE FIRST LOSS CAME IN 2017
Erdoğan's first real defeat in Istanbul actually happened in 2017. During the constitutional referendum that introduced today's Turkish-style presidential system, the opposition secured more votes in Istanbul. The AKP-MHP bloc, which led the “Yes” campaign, received 48.5%, while the opposition, led by the CHP, won over 51%. From that point onward, AKP never managed to regain a firm grip on Istanbul.
THE ISTANBUL PARTY
Throughout the 100-year history of the Turkish Republic, political parties have traditionally been “Ankara parties.” However, the AKP emerged as an exception, being born and growing as an “Istanbul party.”
The main reason for this Istanbul-centric identity is its leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He built and shaped AKP using the network and cadres he established as Istanbul's mayor in 1994.
In 2001, Erdoğan broke away from the political movement he came from, distancing himself from its banned leader, Necmettin Erbakan. Just one year later, in the 2002 elections, he came to power alone—and has remained in power ever since.
Neither Erdoğan nor his party ever adopted a typical Ankara political identity. He never severed ties with Istanbul—his home remains there, and most of his connections still originate from the city.
After all, his entire political narrative has been built on the idea of dismantling Ankara's traditional state-centric mentality.
CHP: THE ANKARA PARTY
Many parties are linked to Ankara, but CHP is the most “Ankara-centric” of all. In the words of CHP supporters, it is the “party of foundation and liberation.”
However, after 2016, when signs of AKP's decline began to emerge, the opposition took the lead in the 2017 referendum in Istanbul—as mentioned earlier.
Then in 2019, Ekrem İmamoğlu became the first opposition figure to win the Istanbul mayoralty in 25 years.
THE BURDENS OF ISTANBUL
Istanbul is a city that carries the burdens of every corner of Turkey. The greatest wealth and the deepest poverty both exist side by side in this city. Cinema, entertainment, luxury venues—but also homelessness and displacement—all coexist in Istanbul.
Today, Istanbul hosts a major political crackdown, its streets echoing to both the noise and the silence of that crackdown. But beneath it all, Istanbul's everyday struggles continue.
DAMN, ISTANBUL
There are countless poems and writings about Istanbul. One of the most famous is by socialist writer and poet Vedat Türkali:
“All this suffering was not for nothing,
Wait for us,
Wait with your grand and silent Süleymaniye,
With your parks, your bridges, your squares,
Wait for us, Istanbul.”
Final words: Istanbul does not wait. It cannot wait.
