By Nergis Demirkaya
In recent weeks, Turkey has been debating claims of a new constitution, a revision of the system of government, and changes to the electoral law.
The government's desire for a 'new civilian constitution' is no secret, but two things have reignited the debate now. First, whatever the election date turns out to be — November 2027 or April 2028 — it is drawing closer, and if any step is to be taken, the time to move is now. Second, there is the confidence generated by the framework law laying the legal groundwork for the PKK's disarmament, which passed the 600-seat parliament with a historic majority of 467. There is talk that this process and its outcome have opened new possibilities for consensus on a new constitution, including the DEM Party’s possible support.
Changes to the electoral and political parties law, meanwhile, hit the agenda after an interview given by MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli. The 78-year-old nationalist gave no details on content, but opposition parties have begun saying the government is preparing changes that would consolidate its own power and narrow the opposition's political space.
AKP’S PLANS FOR NEAR FUTURE
So what plan does the AKP actually have on the issues the opposition is debating? According to a party official on the 11-member constitutional commission chaired by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, the year-old effort has settled on its main headings and drawn up a general framework of what could be done — but no presentation has yet been made to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The delay, it's said, owes to the energy channeled into the Terror-Free Turkey process, and the matter may not resurface until after October. Still, there's no sign of urgency. The same official says the claims circulating in public — a 'revision of the system,' a 'shift to a semi-presidential system' — don't reflect reality either.
The picture is no different for the electoral and political parties law. Talk ranges from a shift to a narrow or narrowed electoral system, to lowering the election threshold to 5%, to tightening the criteria for the roughly 40 parties currently eligible to run so as to cut that number in half, to raising the number of MPs needed to form a parliamentary group from 20 to 40. Given that the AKP has amended the electoral law before nearly every election, it's suggested it may again make changes that strengthen its own position. But according to party officials, there's no work underway on this front either, at least for now. One official in the AKP's parliamentary group leadership says: 'A comprehensive change to the electoral and political parties law is always on our agenda. It's in our 2023 election manifesto too, but there's no work on it right now. It could be looked at in the new legislative term if the need arises.' Here too, as with the constitution, the appetite exists — but there's no real urgency.
‘NO NEED FOR A NEW STEP NOW’
While the public debate claims that the government will manipulate the constitution and electoral law to ensure they win the election, the experience the opposition has gone through in the past two years prompts a different question: Does the government even need a new constitution or a change to the electoral law?
Erdoğan has said he'll be 'fighting to serve Turkey for many more years, God willing'. His strongest rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, may have lost his right to stand, given his annulled diploma and the sentences he could face in the cases against him.
In the CHP — split in two after the 'absolute nullity' ruling that made history — those who broke away to found a new party boasted of being the country's leading party; today they're scrambling to rebuild support that has slid back down to 20-25%.
The DEM Party, the key to so much in parliament these days, has toned down its opposition because of the PKK disarmament process. In other words, all rivals to the AKP have been pushed back or neutralized.
Perhaps that's also why Erdoğan — who hosted dozens of world leaders including US President Donald Trump at the recent NATO summit, forged the Mecca Alliance with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit over the weekend, and will host COP31 in two months — has barely said a single sentence about the opposition in the past month. In other words, after all the judicial operations carried out, there's simply no need left to talk about an opposition that’s still struggling to bind its wounds! As Yeni Party Chair Özgür Özel himself put it, the fight against the opposition is no longer being waged by politicians but through the AKP's judicial arms.
There are also claims that new operations are on the way. Talk continues that judicial operations could extend to Mansur Yavaş, seen as one of the opposition's favored presidential candidates, and that the parliamentary immunity of several MPs — starting with Yeni Party Chair Özgür Özel — could also be lifted.
But the possibility that this pressure could backfire with voters shouldn't be underestimated either.
