By Nergis Demirkaya
The CHP is seeking to win power but is trying to do politics while caught in a major judicial clampdown. Operations target municipalities on one front, and the threat of an “absolute nullity” ruling persists against the party center. Following the most recent operation against Bursa Municipality, calls for elections were voiced more loudly. Initially, there were calls for early elections, and if not, for by-elections for the eight vacant parliamentary seats.
According to CHP Chair Özgür Özel, a by-election is a constitutional necessity. The AKP, however, interprets the same law differently, saying that no by-election can take place unless 30 parliamentary seats are vacant. The CHP, in turn, refuses to push the number to 30 through resignations unless the government provides guarantees. Even in that case AKP votes would be needed to call by-elections.
Whatever the technicalities, the government has clearly rejected Özel’s call. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan dismissed it as a “futile effort,” saying there are no early or by-elections in the government’s near-term political coordinates. MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli reinforced this stance, stating that elections are not a toy and that “the timing of the ballot box is already determined.”
Speaking to Turkey in Depth on condition of anonymity, a senior AKP official in parliament said the CHP’s persistence on elections stems from “internal divisions within the party.” Some even go further and claim that the aim is to shield jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and his team with immunity by nominating them in a by-election.
‘ERDOĞAN WILL USE HIS TERM TO THE VERY END’
A senior AKP official explains their resistance to election debates by pointing to broader priorities: “We control our own agenda. This is not Switzerland. On one side there is the Ukraine crisis, on the other the Iran war. We are surrounded by a ring of fire. There are economic challenges exacerbated by war. There are also pending steps in the Terror-Free Turkey process. We have a lot to do.”
Another AKP member known as an active parliamentarian notes that calling early elections would effectively shorten Erdoğan’s five-year mandate: “Erdoğan would want to use the authority he has been given until the end. We are also confident about the next election. In other words, we want to govern for many more years. Why would we lose two years by holding early elections?”
Although they insist that early elections are not on the AKP’s agenda, it is widely known that for Erdoğan to run again, either a constitutional amendment must extend his term or parliament must call early elections. The AKP has initiated internal constitutional work, yet the likelihood of such an amendment is diminishing each day. This leaves a parliamentary decision for early elections backed by 360 votes as the remaining path.
AKP SEARCHES FOR 34 MPs
Based on parliamentary seat distribution, the ruling alliance — the AKP, MHP, HÜDA-PAR and DSP — holds 326 seats. This means 34 more votes are needed to call early elections. Even if the 20-member bloc formed by DEVA, Gelecek and Saadet parties, along with the four MPs from the YRP, were to support the move, it would still fall short. This shifts attention to the DEM Party, which holds 56 seats. Its position is expected to depend on developments in the Terror-Free Turkey process.
A former AKP lawmaker, now in the opposition, argues that Erdoğan will calibrate steps in the process according to an electoral timeline, suggesting delays in legal measures are tied to this planning. According to this view, anticipated legal steps may be timed for a period when the DEM Party would find it difficult to reject government demands in order to sustain the process.
NOT AN EARLY ELECTION — A BROUGHT-FORWARD ELECTION!
So what is the government’s plan for election timing? Under the law, a decision to hold elections one week before May 14, 2028 would still qualify as an early election — removing any obstacle to Erdoğan’s candidacy. For this reason, AKP officials prefer the term “brought-forward election” rather than “early election.”
AKP Deputy Group Chair Mustafa Elitaş has pointed to November 2027 as a possible date for a “brought-forward election.” Within the party’s executive board, some argue that March–April 2028 would be more appropriate. Although the economic fallout from the Iran war has led some to mention spring 2027 as a possibility, no such assessment has gained traction within the AKP.
NO ELECTION WITHOUT ERDOĞAN
According to AKP insiders, there is currently no change in the election timeline. An election without Erdoğan is not seen as an option. Beyond a decision for early — or “brought-forward” — elections, no alternative formula appears viable for his candidacy. This means doing whatever is needed to secure the support of 360 MPs. Ultimately, the election date will be set according to the political and economic landscape in which Erdoğan believes he can win.
