By Hakan Okçal
The U.S. and Israel have started a war against Iran, although Trump does not want to call it as such. I saw no way out of the impasse between the two parties, although the Iranian side was optimistic after the third round of nuclear talks.
I maintained the view that the final destination of Israel’s operations against Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard would be Iran. Iran’s sworn enmity and its nuclear program make it an existential threat for Israel. No Israeli government would tolerate a nuclear Iran. That is why the usually fractured Israeli public seems to be united behind Netanyahu this time.
Hamas unwittingly gave Netanyahu a golden opportunity with its atrocious October 7 attacks. Israel rapidly subjugated Iran’s proxies Hamas and Hezbollah as well as the Revolutionary Guard. However, if Trump was not in power in Washington, Netanyahu could have never dared to embark upon a full scale military attack to topple Iran’s mullah regime.
REGIME CHANGE IS ULTIMATE GOAL FOR NETANYAHU AND TRUMP
When Trump came to power, he was more interested in making peace. But Netanyahu convinced him to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities during the 12-day war in June. This short war was only a precursor of what we are witnessing now. Although some critical Iranian facilities were bombed (obliterated in Trump’s words) and high-ranking security functionaries killed, in Netanyahu’s mind the job was not done.
Netanyahu’s ultimate aim is to change the regime in Iran for a friendly one, disable its nuclear program and destroy its ballistic missile arsenal. Such an operation cannot be attempted without America’s collaboration. Netanyahu not only convinced Trump, but seems to have tacitly enlisted quite a number of Arab states, who are also coming under Iranian attacks.
There is no question that Iran is trying to hurt as many nations and regions as it can to put pressure on the U.S. to stop its war campaign. The Greek Cypriot administration, the Iraqi Kurdish region and Azerbaijan have been hit in pursuit of this goal. Turkey also became a target. According to Turkey’s Defence Ministry, an Iranian missile was detected by the NATO radar in Malatya-Kürecik and intercepted by a NATO navy vessel stationed in the Eastern Mediterranean. Iran has denied any wrongdoing against Turkey but the Incirlik base, where U.S. air assets and personnel have long been stationed, was most likely the target.
It is a well-known fact that Turkey is not comfortable with the war that may result in detrimental effects. That is why it initially offered its mediation efforts to stop any conflagration in the situation. Iran’s latest attempt to hit Incirlik is therefore quite an unscrupulous act when it is increasingly becoming isolated in the war.
IRAN IS FIGHTING BACK, BUT CAN IT SURVIVE?
The Iranian regime is proving more resilient than expected. The supreme leader’s assassination was a psychological blow rather than a crippling decapitation of the regime. Although it has lost its navy and air force assets to a large extent and there seem to be disruptions in the military command and control chain, Iran is still able to push ahead with its missile attacks. The question is whether Iran will be able to sustain its fighting capabilities in the long run given that the U.S. and Israel are preparing for a protracted war.
There is no question that the regime will stumble and fall at a certain stage. The question is when and how.
A regime change might eventually happen but it does not mean that a democratic and secular government will take the place of the mullahs. That option is highly unlikely due to the lack of alternative leadership and institutions apart from the mullahs. A friendly government led by moderate clerics would be welcomed by the U.S. as long as it relinquishes its nuclear program and does not possess missiles capable of hitting Israel and U.S.’s Gulf allies.
DIFFICULTIES LOOM LARGE, ESPECIALLY FOR TURKEY
Until the U.S. and Israel get what they want, more difficulties are looming for many countries in the region. There is no doubt that Turkey will be among the most affected.
Turkey’s primary fear is a refugee influx. Economic troubles are also a big concern. Although Turkey has diversified its imports and is not dependent on Iran, it will still be affected by soaring energy prices. Its tourism sector will also be adversely affected.
Turkey will also bear the brunt of political instabilities in the region. The possibility of a Kurdish insurgency, which the CIA is reported to be pursuing in western Iran can have spillover effects on Turkey. A land operation over the Iraqi Kurdish region would have even more severe repercussions on the stability of the entire region. Let’s hope that the U.S. will never attempt to embark upon such ominous adventures.
Otherwise, this will totally upset the present U.S.-Turkey relations. However, a friendly regime in Tehran may also have implications on U.S.-Turkey ties. In such an eventuality Turkey may find itself no longer a most favoured U.S. partner in the region. This was exactly Turkey’s situation during the late shah’s time. In that case, Turkey, already marginalised as a member on Trump’s Board of Peace, will be further sidelined.
