Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders met under the facilitation of United Nations Secretary-General’s personal envoy, María Angela Holguín Cuéllar, on Dec. 11.
Tufan Erhürman and Nikos Christodoulides reportedly agreed to expedite a series of confidence-building measures.
Talks to resolve the decadeslong Cyprus issue are unlikely to gain traction before mid-2026, as both the north and south prepare for critical elections.
Although Erhürman’s win has raised hopes for renewed negotiations, upcoming parliamentary elections in Southern Cyprus, scheduled for May, are expected to stall momentum. Erhürman’s 63% percent victory has also triggered discussions of early parliamentary elections in the north. During this period, confidence-building measures are likely to take precedence over progress toward a final settlement.
The voting in the south will weigh heavily on the talks’ timeline. At the same time, the Greek Cypriots will assume the EU presidency for six months starting in January while UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ term also expires in late 2026.
Although Greek Cypriot media outlets report increasing pressure on Christodoulides to restart negotiations following Erhürman’s win, a surge in the far right could push Christodoulides away from talks in the months leading up to elections.
Turkish Cypriot journalist Hasan Erçakıca told Turkey in Depth that while negotiations take place at the leaders’ level, the electoral calendar in the south will still shape events.
“Christodoulides will need to persuade the small far-right parties he must mobilize for the presidential election he’ll contest. He isn’t their leader, but there’s a shared political fate among them. So until May, he won’t take steps toward talks, because he’ll need these groups — who are distant from a solution — firmly behind him,” Erçakıca said.
Greek Cypriot media have reported that polls ahead of the 2026 elections show a shift toward far-right parties such as ELAM, which is on track to become the country’s third-largest party.
In the north, early elections are also under discussion. As it stands, voting is scheduled for January 2027. Erhürman, who won the presidency by a wide margin, is now working with a three-party coalition government. His party the CTP remains in the opposition. Growing coalition tensions and Erhürman’s decisive victory have fueled expectations of an early election.
The YDP leader Erhan Arıklı, who is known for his commitment to the mainland Turkey, said the country could head to early polls in April or May, adding that steps could be taken after the budget debate concludes in January.
The CTP’s new leader, 52-year-old Sıla Usar İncirli, who succeeded Erhürman as party chair, called the presidential election “a result declaring that the Turkish Cypriot people no onger accept the current social, economic and political conditions.” She said an early election was “very likely” and noted that “all indicators show that in a possible early general election, the CTP could come to power on its own.”
A ‘TRUMP STYLE’ AMBASSADOR TO THE SOUTH
All these come amid growing reports that the U.S. President Donald Trump will turn his focus to the Cyprus issue once his efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war are completed. Trump has reportedly nominated John Breslow, a Republican donor with close ties to his inner circle, to be the ambassador. Greek Cypriot media have described the appointment as part of a broader effort by Trump allies to reshape U.S. energy and security strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Kimberly Guilfoyle, the former fiancée of Donald Trump Jr., also began her tenure as U.S. ambassador to Greece in early November.
FOUR-POINT METHODOLOGY PUTS PRESSURE ON SOUTH
Electoral issues are not the only reason for the expected stagnation in negotiations. Erhürman’s four-point methodology, announced during his campaign, is also seen as a potential obstacle.
“Christodoulides, under election pressure, will not accept Erhürman’s four-point methodological proposal,” Erçakıca said.
Erhürman presented the proposal during his first meeting with Christodoulides. The framework calls for recognition of political equality, adoption of a concrete timetable, confirmation that past convergences will not be reopened, and guarantees that if the Greek Cypriot side withdraws from the table again, Turkish Cypriots will not return to the current status quo.
CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURES HIGH ON THE AGENDA
The expected slowdown in negotiations is likely to push Erhürman to focus on advancing confidence-building measures.
Erhürman emphasized the need to create a “conducive climate” on the island. Noting that the last meaningful round of talks took place at Crans-Montana in 2017, he said the past eight years have brought significant regional changes.
“Expecting immediate progress after eight years is neither honest nor realistic. That’s why we are working on proposals to create a conducive climate,” he said.
Some of Erhürman’s 10-point list of confidence-building proposals includes granting citizenship rights to children born from mixed marriages, increasing the number of booths at the Metehan crossing, and allowing 14-year-olds from both sides to play football matches together.
RE-CLAIMING NORTHERN CYPRUS IN TURKEY
On the other hand Erhürman has another foreign policy goal: “relaunching” the image of Northern Cyprus in Turkey.
Speaking of a “new era, both at home and abroad,” Erhürman said, “We need to rebuild the perception of Northern Cyprus in Turkey.”
Pointing out that in recent years Northern Cyprus has mostly been associated with “casinos, the mafia, nightclubs, and money laundering” in Turkish public discourse, Erhürman said: “We have problems in these areas, but Northern Cyprus and the Turkish Cypriot people are not defined by them. There is a need to share the real potential of our country again with the Turkish public.”
