After defeating the AKP in the 2024 local elections, the opposition set its sights on the presidency but the split and rivalry between the CHP and the Yeni Party are now weakening it by the day.
On Sept. 23, Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş announced his resignation from the CHP and his next steps remain unclear. The question is whether the move strengthens his hand as a potential candidate, or whether he will leave politics in 2028. With the resignations of Yavaş and eight other mayors, Ankara has followed Izmir in slipping out of CHP control to become independent.
In Istanbul, the Princes' Islands district, long an opposition stronghold, has shifted to AKP control through transfers and alleged threats, similar to what took place in the city’s Üsküdar district. The CHP's majority in the Istanbul Municipal Council has shrunk to six seats.
As a result, the glow of opposition success in the last elections is fading.
TIMING OF THE RESIGNATION
Yavaş had kept his distance from the CHP since the court-appointed administration led by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu took office in May. His decision to finally quit has been a long time coming. The final straw seems to have come after he met President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for the first time in six years on Sept. 9, skipping the CHP's founding anniversary that same day.
Responding to criticisms of his distance from the party, Yavaş then said, 'If my position is seen as a source of discomfort by the headquarters of either party [CHP or Yeni Party], I will not hesitate to do what is necessary.'
The discontent did not stop. CHP Spokesperson Müslim Sarı targeted him: 'No one is above the CHP ... A mayor of ours, when taking a step, cannot say he informed the chair of another party besides his own chair.'
Yavaş responded with a lengthy post on X announcing his resignation: 'I have never seen myself as above political parties. I would consider such a claim impertinent.'
He added: 'Offices are temporary. Political conditions may change. But loyalty to the trust the nation has placed in you does not change.'
As he had done before meeting Erdoğan, Yavaş informed Kılıçdaroğlu of his resignation through a CHP deputy chairman, BBC Turkish reported. Yeni Party Chair Özgür Özel had no advance notice but was the first to congratulate him. 'We respect any decision that Mr. Mansur Yavaş and our fellow mayors will make from here on.'
Kılıçdaroğlu said, “Yavaş is a valuable politician whom I brought into the CHP.'
CHP LOSES MUNICIPALITIES
Yavaş's departure set off a wave of resignations among Ankara's district mayors. Eight announced they were leaving the CHP, pledging loyalty to Yavaş.
CHP members of the municipal council are also quitting the party, either to follow him as independents or to join the Yeni Party. The CHP once held 90 seats on the council. It is now down to 40, and the number is expected to fall further.
In the 2024 local elections, the CHP won Ankara Municipality along with 16 district municipalities. That picture had already begun to change before Yavaş and eight district mayors resigned. Four mayors elected on the CHP ticket had defected to the AKP.
Two others, Hüseyin Can Güner of Çankaya and Veli Gündüz Şahin of Mamak, had joined the Yeni Party.
The CHP now holds only two district municipalities in Ankara: Etimesgut, led by Erdal Beşikçioğlu, and Yenimahalle, led by Fethi Yaşar.
Of the municipalities still held by the Yeni Party and the CHP, two have mayors in jail: Güner and Beşikçioğlu.
Sarı, the CHP spokesperson, said the number of municipalities held by the CHP had fallen to 122, down from 410 after the 2024 local elections. With the recent resignations, the number dropped to 112. The CHP now only has six metropolitan municipalities, one provincial municipality, 92 district municipalities and 13 town municipalities.
OPTIONS ON THE TABLE
Yavaş now has many options: running for the presidency by positioning himself as above parties, giving up his bid, or increasing the possibility for Özel to run as the opposition’s candidate.
Asked whether his resignation was tied to a presidential bid, Yavaş told Independent Turkish: 'There are those in the media who link everything to my presidential candidacy. This resignation decision has nothing to do with the presidential election. I am watching what is said in the media in astonishment.'
That said, those close to Yavaş place him as a candidate.
“After the law adopted on the Kurdish process, while the Yeni Party’s support is decreasing in the polls, Yavaş’s popularity increased speedily, especially in central Anatolia. He is the most possible candidate from now on,” said a source, acting with Yavaş, speaking to Turkey in Depth on condition of anonymity.
Another person from his team noted that Yavaş would not clarify his position until possible changes to the constitution and election law are finalized. “He does intend to run. The resignation has eased the pressure on him, bought him time and broadened his ground for relations with different parties,” the person said.
“There is no question of him giving up on a presidential candidacy, and he currently has no plan to join the Yeni Party,” reported Ayşe Sayın from BBC Turkish, quoting sources close to the mayor.
According to Gülsen Solaker of DW Turkish, Yavaş prefers to position himself as 'above all parties': 'One of the scenarios raised in Ankara's political backrooms is that Yavaş may not object to different opposition parties coming together to nominate him, but would not want to put himself forward as a presidential candidate on his own initiative.'
Ahead of the 2018 elections, when former President Abdullah Gül was a possible candidate, Erdoğan’s chief advisor İbrahim Kalın and Chief of General Staff Hulusi Akar landed in Gül’s garden in a helicopter. Although the details of that meeting were not publicized, it was seen as a clear threat. This memory is frequently echoed nowadays among opposition politicians.
ROAD FOR ÖZEL
Özel has pledged not to run for president several times. But legal moves to block the candidacy of jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu have fueled speculation over who the Yeni Party's candidate might be if Yavaş does not run. Most signs point to Özel.
In a recent interview with T24, Özel said: 'They will do everything to keep Mayor Ekrem from running. In that case, Mansur Yavaş's candidacy is a very important option. But let me say something clear here. I have been saying it since the first day. We do not declare anyone as anyone else's backup.'
These remarks do not open a path for his candidacy. But the question of what happens if Yavaş does not run remains unanswered.
BAHÇELİ GLUED TO THE SCREEN AGAIN
MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli, known as an avid follower of TV series, criticized the blanket coverage of Yavaş's resignation on Sept. 23.
In a message to Bengü Türk TV, a channel close to his party, Bahçeli said: 'Right now, all television channels are broadcasting Mansur Yavaş's resignation. Are these broadcasts treating this as a very important issue for Turkey, or is the esteemed president's speech at the UN and his political contacts in the US being overshadowed?'
He had earlier complained that the names of Yavaş and İmamoğlu came up too often on television. He accused the channels of openly doing PR.
THE AKP'S STEP-BY-STEP PATH TO ISTANBUL
Princes' Islands Mayor Ali Ercan Akpolat was formally arrested on corruption charges and removed from office in June. The council elected Medine Pamuk as his replacement. She later resigned, citing health problems, and the council held a new vote for acting mayor.
Nine members cast ballots. The vote went to a fourth round amid high tension, after the presiding officer called in police. The AKP's candidate, Kemal Türkyılmaz, won with five votes.
The support for Türkyılmaz showed that three CHP members voted for the AKP candidate. Before the vote, the council balance stood at 7-2 in the CHP's favor.
The CHP won the 2024 election in the district with 55.49% of the vote. Its closest rival, the AKP, received 22%. At that time, the CHP held 10 seats on the council, while the AKP had only two.
Along with Akpolat, two CHP council members were formally arrested, and substitutes from the reserve list took their seats.
Two other members, Yavuz Çiftçioğlu and Nesimi Aday, faced judicial control measures and removal from their posts, which barred them from voting. Authorities lifted Çiftçioğlu's restriction before the vote. Aday's remained in place.
Yeni Party Istanbul Provincial Chair Özgür Çelik said: 'Arrest five of the 10 council members, threaten three, transfer the other. Is this your politics? Last night they lifted the restriction on one of the two members removed from office. One is under the threat that his shop will be demolished. The other is being threatened with arrest.'
Before the vote, jailed Deputy Mayor Fırat Durak announced his resignation from both the district council and the Istanbul Municipal Council. Durak said he stepped down so that his replacement from the reserve list could vote. The same reasoning applies to the Istanbul Municipal Council, he said: 'I want it to be known that I also made this resignation decision so that the council member replacing me from the reserve list can vote in any possible mayoral or acting mayoral election in the Istanbul Municipal Council.'
LOSING IN ISTANBUL
In the 2024 elections, the CHP took 11 districts from the AKP and the only district held by the MHP, raising the number of CHP-run district municipalities in Istanbul to 26. The AKP won just 13.
In the Istanbul Municipal Council, the CHP won 184 seats, overtaking the AKP's 130 and taking the majority. The MHP sent only two members to the council.
With 13 mayors from Istanbul now in jail, 10 Istanbul municipalities have passed to the AKP. The mayors of Beykoz, Tuzla, Çekmeköy and Şile defected to the AKP. The government appointed trustees in Esenyurt and Şişli. Gaziosmanpaşa, Bayrampaşa, Üsküdar and, most recently, the Princes' Islands switched through council votes.
Currently, 21 members of the Istanbul Council are in jail. Another 12 have been released but not reinstated. The opposition now holds 152 seats, while the ruling alliance holds 143.
Durak's resignation pointed to a possible vote in Istanbul. CHP spokesperson Sarı raised the same possibility at the press meeting where he made the remarks that prompted Yavaş's resignation:
'We truly face a risk regarding the Istanbul Municipality, and we are taking every care so that it does not pass to the AKP. We expect the same responsibility from our Yeni Party colleagues.'
Journalist Hilmi Hacaloğlu said the arithmetic also has a DEM Party dimension:
'Under the 'Istanbul Alliance,' 17 DEM Party council members were elected from CHP lists, and 11 of them are in a position to vote. Officials I spoke with said they are under the impression that there will be no change in the DEM Party for now. But in politics, even 24 hours is really very long.'
IF İMAMOĞLU'S SENTENCE IS FINALIZED
İmamoğlu was convicted of insulting members of the Supreme Election Council (YSK) by calling them 'fools.'
On Sept. 19, a regional court of appeal upheld his sentence of two years, seven months and 15 days in prison.
The ruling, which includes a political ban, is now before the Court of Cassation. If the court upholds it, İmamoğlu will be banned from politics. He will not be able to hold public office, vote or run for election.
‘YAVAŞ COULD JOIN AKP’
Pro-government columnist Abdulkadir Selvi said that Yavaş has a 51 percent chance of joining the AKP.
Selvi said that joining the Yeni Party would risk alienating broader opposition support after Yavaş departed from the CHP. “The probability of Yavaş joining the AKP is not low at all. In fact, I would say this possibility is at 51 percent,” Selvi said on CNN Türk.
Also in his column in Hürriyet, Selvi wrote that Erdoğan and AKP officials would welcome Yavaş’s entry into their ranks ahead of the upcoming presidential election.
“President Erdoğan would want Yavaş to join the AKP because it means conquering a major fortress in the presidential race. It means removing a major rival from the field,” he wrote.
While acknowledging that Yavaş’s next move remains unconfirmed, Selvi stressed that a transition to the ruling party remains entirely plausible: “Will Mansur Yavaş transfer to the AKP? Time will tell. But I am not saying he won't. Yavaş could join the AKP in the future.”
‘RUNNING FOR JOINT OPPOSITION CANDIDACY’
A staunch supporter of the government, A Haber commentator Mete Sohtaoğlu said that Yavaş is stepping aside from internal party friction to position himself as a joint presidential candidate across opposition parties.
Sohtaoğlu commented that Yavaş’s resignation protects his political reputation from internal disputes within the CHP and the Yeni Party. “I do not think he will remain independent for long. He positioned himself to prevent his personal brand from eroding during internal congresses and leadership fights,” he said.
Sohtaoğlu predicted that Yavaş will gather 100,000 voter signatures to launch his campaign and build a broader opposition coalition, including groups like the Zafer Party and the Anahtar Party.
“His goal is to become a consensus candidate for all opposition parties. He is stepping outside daily disputes to prepare for an umbrella candidacy,” Sohtaoğlu said.
He added that district mayors who resigned alongside Yavaş will provide institutional and financial backing for his national campaign: “The municipalities that resigned with him should be watched closely. They will fund and support Yavaş’s political career moving forward.”
‘ISTANBUL TO FOLLOW ANKARA’
Pro-government journalist Nevzat Çiçek said a potential political ban on Istanbul Mayor İmamoğlu will force opposition parties to choose their alliances, turning the city council into a testing ground for Turkish politics.
Following local resignations alongside Yavaş, Çiçek argued that a similar political shift is bound to hit Istanbul next.
“Ankara is experiencing a massive political map change,” Çiçek said. “I assert that the next phase of this transformation will take place in Istanbul.”
Çiçek recalled that if İmamoğlu receives a political ban, the Istanbul Municipality Council would be required to elect a replacement mayor. Because council seat margins are narrow, parties will face tough choices.
“Istanbul will serve as our small laboratory to see how the CHP, the Yeni Party, and DEM Party act,” Çiçek added. “Where the CHP and the Yeni Party try to act together, like in Üsküdar, forced cooperation simply fails.”
Çiçek stressed that any power shift in Istanbul would carry far greater political consequences than changes in the capital. “If the political picture changes in Istanbul, its impact will be even larger than in Ankara,” he added.
‘YAVAŞ MAINTAINS POLITICAL ADVANTAGE BY REMAINING INDEPENDENT’
Political scientist Turgay Yerlikaya, a commentator for pro-government media outlets, said that Yavaş retains a strong political advantage by remaining independent, positioning himself to run for president if conditions change.
Yerlikaya said that Yavaş secured the highest percentage of votes among CHP mayoral candidates in the 2024 local elections.
“In public opinion surveys immediately after the local elections, Yavaş was clearly ahead of İmamoğlu in all polls,” Yerlikaya recalled. “Yet his position became something the CHP leadership could not fully accept.”
Yerlikaya said that pressure from the CHP ultimately pushed Yavaş into a distinct political space, allowing him to claim independent status today. “Mansur Yavaş now enjoys the comfort of this independence,” Yerlikaya commented.
He concluded that remaining unaligned serves Yavaş's long-term presidential strategy: “By staying in limbo, he prepares himself for the presidential election. He still holds a major political advantage to emerge as the main opposition candidate.”
‘TWO FACES OF YAVAŞ’
Nurettin Kalkan, a right-wing opposition political scientist, said Yavaş’s resignation from the CHP lays the groundwork both for a presidential bid and a potential retirement.
Kalkan described Yavaş's decision as a tactical move that strengthens ties with right-wing voters while maintaining an 'above-politics' image. By stepping away from the CHP, Yavaş distances himself from internal party strife while keeping nationalist opposition parties in his corner.
“Yavaş prepared the ground for both his candidacy and his retirement. Out with the two faces of Janus, in with the two faces of Yavaş,' Kalkan said, referring to the two-faced Roman god who looks to both the past and the future.
Kalkan added that Yavaş forfeited his standing within the CHP but preserved his appeal as an apolitical candidate. “He crowned his claim of being above politics with a concrete step. This move directly legitimizes his position while sending a message to the ruling bloc that he is simply focusing on his job,” Kalkan said.
‘WILL NOT RUN FOR PRESIDENCY’
Opposition journalist İsmail Saymaz said that Yavaş is executing a multi-stage plan that will eventually see him withdraw from the presidential race.
Saymaz argued that Yavaş’s resignation from the CHP was a calculated step following a meeting with President Erdoğan.
“He used the crisis between the CHP and Yeni Party as an opportunity to resign,” Saymaz said. “He will remain independent for a while, but at the end of the day, he will not run for president.”
Saymaz questioned Özel’s decision to congratulate Yavaş on his departure from the CHP, suggesting a covert agreement might exist.
“Why congratulate a mayor who leaves the CHP to remain independent?” Saymaz asked. “I can only understand this if there is a hidden action plan between them for the presidential election.”
Saymaz maintained that Yavaş will slowly step back from national political ambitions while avoiding joining the ruling party: “He is gradually pulling back. This is the first phase of the plan he set.”
‘VITAL FOR MAINTAINING HOPE’
Political scientist Berk Esen said that Yavaş remains the opposition’s most popular political figure, making his continued presence vital for maintaining hope for political change.
Esen said that key opposition leaders who drove success in the 2024 local elections—İmamoğlu, Özel, and Yavaş—have been pushed out of the CHP. He added that Yavaş’s recent resignation must be viewed in light of these pressures.
“Yavaş currently holds the highest level of public support within the opposition. Keeping him at the forefront of the opposition is essential to keeping the prospect of political change alive,” Esen wrote on X.
Esen criticized commentators who claim Yavaş has retired from politics, arguing such claims align with the government's strategy to leave the opposition without strong candidates.
“Unless he announces such a decision himself, presenting this possibility as fact serves no purpose for the opposition,” Esen said. “Instead, it directly serves the ruling party's strategy to leave the opposition without viable alternatives.”
'IF THERE IS SUPPORT, I AM IN'
News site T24’s columnist Gökçer Tahincioğlu wrote that Yavaş is maintaining an 'if there is support, I am in' approach to a potential presidential run.
Tahincioğlu wrote that Yavaş will remain independent for now rather than immediately joining the Yeni Party, keeping open the option of running as a joint candidate for multiple opposition parties.
'As long as the candidacy door and the chance of winning remain open, Yavaş will not drop out,' he wrote.
According to Tahincioğlu's analysis, Yavaş draws broad appeal across secular, nationalist, social democratic, and conservative voter segments due to his balanced stance and commitment to core national values.
'Even conservative voters find him reasonable and balanced,' Tahincioğlu said. 'He receives support from nationalist, social democratic, and Kemalist groups.'
While socialist and Kurdish voters represent his lowest support base, analysts believe opposition unity could bridge the gap in a potential runoff against Erdoğan, according to Tahincioğlu.
'Yavaş will not enter an election he believes he will lose,' Tahincioğlu added. 'However, his position remains clear: 'If there is support, I am in.''
