By Nergis Demirkaya
No sooner had Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu settled into the party leadership — declaring 'first purification, then a congress' in the immediate wake of the absolute nullity ruling — than he did exactly what everyone expected: signed off on expulsions.
Nine MPs who were among the closest allies of Özgür Özel and Ekrem İmamoğlu, figures who had set out together under the banner of 'change,' were referred to the disciplinary board on allegations of procedural violations related to the party congress.
Özel's response to the referrals was equally sharp. Rather than pressing for an extraordinary congress through a Party Assembly vote, he played a different card: engineering the resignation of 28 Party Assembly members close to him, using their departure to force the extraordinary congress by other means.
The expulsions and resignations of Özel's allies fanned the flames of the new-party debate. MPs who argue that founding a new party is now unavoidable lay out their reasoning as follows:
— Kılıçdaroğlu has come not to serve as a temporary caretaker but to lead the party all the way to the next election. Legal challenges look all but certain to fail. If we are going into an election roughly eighteen months from now under his leadership, we need to open up our own path without delay.
— We entered politics saying that governance cannot be imposed against the will of the people. We must now listen to the same people, who are telling us to found a new party if necessary.
— Our public support has grown further since the absolute nullity ruling. We can see the backing we received in the March 31 local elections, when we came first. We have a vote potential in the range of 34 to 36 percent. We need to make the most of that.
— A new party founded by Özgür Özel and supported by İmamoğlu bears no resemblance to the flash-in-the-pan outfits launched and shuttered by the likes of Mustafa Sarıgül or Muharrem İnce. It is not we who are calling for a new party — it is the people who support us.
— When the 37th Ordinary Congress was annulled, the party was effectively reset to its 2020 state. Having now failed to hold two consecutive congresses, the CHP could forfeit its right to stand in elections on July 26. That is a risk we cannot afford to take.
LOOKING FOR A NEW PATH
If the CHP splits, the preference appears to be striking a deal with an existing party that has already qualified to enter elections, rather than building something from scratch. Claims of talks with the DSP and the Genç Party have been denied, but contacts with the Demokrat Party — or with TEK Party, founded by Ahmet Özal, son of Turkey's seventh president Turgut Özal — are said to be under way. Failing that, the option of founding a brand-new party from the ground up remains on the table.
ABANDONING A 103-YEAR-OLD BRAND
Yet opposition to the new-party proposal runs deep, even among those who stood against the absolute nullity ruling. Were Özel and İmamoğlu to break from CHP, they could not count on the full support of the 111 MPs and 72 provincial chairs who signed the petition for an extraordinary congress.
Only around 70 of those 111 MPs are said to be willing to follow them into a new formation. Those who believe the fight must be waged from within hold firm: the brand value of a 103-year-old party founded by Atatürk is beyond question, and the Six Arrows, the party’s symbol, cannot be abandoned.
Özel, the ousted party chair, had argued that a CHP under Kılıçdaroğlu could not even get 3% support. But those who have grown up with the party starting with its youth branches are sceptical of that claim. They maintain that the Six Arrows, on their own, carry enormous electoral potential.
Senior figures in the AKP share that assessment. One party official, citing internal voter analysis conducted prior to the absolute nullity ruling, told Turkey in Depth: 'Voters follow either the leader or the flag — meaning the party, its emblem, its logo. The AKP's strength lies in its leader. The CHP has a leadership problem, but its voters have a deeper institutional and partisan loyalty. Our measurements, taken independently of any individual, put CHP's 'flag vote' at 16%. Even if a breakaway party takes a share, a strong supporter base will remain in the CHP. That's why they have no chance of replicating the launch trajectory AKP had at its founding.'
The position of the mayors is also important in any new-party calculus. Should a split occur, senior municipal figures in Mersin, Adana, and several other large cities and districts are said to be leaning toward staying with the CHP — a scenario that would also mean losing the logistical support those municipalities currently provide.
Critics of the new-party project also take aim at the team around Özel and İmamoğlu, which they consider thin. Any new party formed under the current presidential system, they note, would need to go into the election with a presidential candidate — and İmamoğlu's candidacy looks legally very unlikely. Nor, by this reading, does a party without Mansur Yavaş, the second-favorite candidate, stand much of a chance. In that sense, Yavaş's next move looks to be just as pivotal as Özel's own decision.
THE FINANCIAL PROBLEM — AND THE THREAT OF OBSTRUCTION
Finance is another serious obstacle for establishing a new party. The CHP receives state funding. A new formation would need a substantial budget — for party organization and for an election campaign — while being subject to the legal limitations on donations that make fundraising a difficult business. Without money, the scope for political activity narrows sharply.
A further concern about the obstacles awaiting a new party centers on potential interference from the government. The difficulties the İYİ Party encountered when it was founded roughly eight years ago — from hurdles to entering elections to active obstruction of its campaign — are seen as a mild p
review of what lies ahead. The fear, put plainly, is that any party Özel establishes would simply be denied the room to do politics at all.
Those who consider a new party inevitable say the decision could crystallize by early July — within the next two to three weeks. What that decision will be is impossible to predict today. At his party's most recent parliamentary group meeting, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said: 'I sincerely believe that, sooner or later, Turkey will attain the quality of opposition it deserves.'
Whether the coming days deliver on that belief remains to be seen.
