By Cengiz K. Fırat
Turkey and France, NATO allies and regional heavyweights, are locked in a relationship best described as a cocktail of competition, cooperation, and confrontation.
Despite shared interests in trade and global security, Ankara and Paris appear increasingly out of step on strategic and ideological matters even as flashpoints multiply.
OLD ALLIES, NEW FAULT LINES
Turkey and France historically collaborated through NATO and economic partnerships, there are signs of a shift toward more open rivalry.
One of the most sensitive and persistent fault lines has been France’s longstanding engagement with Kurdish movements in the Middle East.
Although France officially designates the PKK as a terrorist organization, its diplomatic and sometimes military backing of groups like the PYD and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Syria has strained relations with Ankara. Turkey sees these groups as extensions of the PKK.
Most recently, reports that President Emmanuel Macron would meet Mazlum Abdi, the leader of the SDF, have inflamed tensions. For Ankara, such moves are political provocation, undermining Turkish security along its southern border.
GEOPOLITICAL CHESSBOARD: FROM THE AEGEAN TO THE CAUCASUS
France’s expanding military infrastructure investments in Greece and Southern Cyprus are also perceived by Ankara as a direct challenge.
From Turkish waters to airspace disputes in the Aegean, Paris’s alignment with Athens and Nicosia has raised fears in Ankara of an encirclement strategy. Joint military drills, defense agreements, and arms sales have intensified the perception that France is opposing Turkey’s regional aspirations. In the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Ankara provided open military and diplomatic backing to Azerbaijan, while France remained sympathetic to Armenia, along with other Western nations.
The Turkish-backed Azeri victory shifted the balance of power in the south Caucasus and showed that Turkey will back its allies—even when in direct opposition to Paris.
Meanwhile, Turkey has a growing footprint in former French spheres of influence such as Mali, Niger, and Chad.
EU MEMBERSHIP BLOCKED, TRADE WELCOMED
At the institutional level, France has been one of the most vocal opponents of Turkey’s EU accession. While there is enlargement fatigue across the EU, Paris has categorically denied Turkey a viable path toward membership. However, France has not let politics get in the way of economics.
Trade between the two exceeds $15 billion, with deep-rooted investment ties and partnerships—particularly in aviation, automotive, and energy. France has pushed for Airbus cooperation, all while maintaining a hard political stance against Ankara within the EU framework.
This contradiction is not lost on Turkish policymakers: welcomed as a market, rejected as a partner.
CULTURAL AND IDEOLOGICAL RIFT
An ideological chasm is widening. France’s secularism often clashes with Turkey’s embrace of religious identity in its domestic and foreign policy.
The 2020 row over cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad and the brutal murder of teacher Samuel Paty led to explosive rhetoric between Presidents Erdoğan and Macron.
The fallout laid bare how deeply cultural values—freedom of expression vs. respect for religion—can divide even long-time allies.
A RIVALRY IN NEED OF MANAGEMENT
Given this long list of tensions, neither side is prepared to back down. Each views the other as misguided and as part of a broader challenge to its regional vision. Yet, prolonged confrontation serves neither.
What’s missing is a structured mechanism for strategic dialogue — one that acknowledges rivalry but seeks to prevent escalation. Both nations stand to lose if tensions spiral: NATO cohesion suffers, Mediterranean security weakens, and economic ties could be hurt.
Despite all odds, Turkey and France have coordinated on anti-terror operations, migration management, and regional diplomacy when mutual interests aligned.
Reviving such cooperation will require political will, trust-building, and a recalibration of expectations.
COST OF ANIMOSITY
Turkey–France relations are unlikely to be warm anytime soon. But they can be predictable and managed.
For Ankara, the key will be addressing legitimate security concerns without isolating partners. Paris will have to balance European values with pragmatic diplomacy.
In an era of shifting alliances and multipolar challenges, both Turkey and France must accept that there are no absolute winners in prolonged diplomatic standoffs—only shared losses.
