By Hakan Okçal
The way Donald Trump was received in Beijing by Xi Jinping showed China’s increased power and confidence in its relations with the US. Trump’s flattery of his host was a clear indication that China will no longer be regarded as an underdog that Trump can push around with arbitrary tariff increases.
The visit also provided tacit acknowledgement that China’s support is needed to end the Hormuz blockade, where the US is losing control.
While Trump was interested in striking trade “deals” on soybean and beef, Xi reminded his guest about the “Thucydides Trap” in relation to their bilateral ties and underlined the importance of Taiwan to China. In Xi’s carefully picked words, the reference to the “Trap” meant that the US, as the descending world power, should not repeat Sparta’s mistake of trying to stop its ascending rival, Athens (hence China), by military means. The US is expected to respect Chinese red lines on Taiwan if it wants to avoid confrontation.
Trump seemed to heed Xi’s messages, which is more than he does for most leaders. From now on, we can talk about a delicate truce between the two adversaries. Let us hope that this calm in Sino-American relations can be maintained.
TURKEY’S PIVOT TOWARD BEIJING
China’s rise to dominance was recognised long ago by some unlikely actors in Turkey. For instance, in the 2000s, General Tuncer Kılıç, former secretary general of the once-mighty National Security Council, urged authorities to leave NATO and join forces with Russia and China. Such ideas were striking given the strong anti-communist sentiments within the Turkish military. In the Cold War, Russia and China were only favored by some minority leftist groups. But at the beginning of 2000s, when the US started to support the Kurdish cause in Iraq and arrested a number of Turkish officers in Northern Iraq, the mood in the Turkish army shifted against America and the Western Alliance.
The same feelings were already latent within the leftist patriotic wing (ulusalcılar-Eurasianists) of the main opposition party, the CHP. Then, the ruling AKP hopped on the bandwagon when Erdoğan expressed his desire to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) led by China. Allegiance to NATO prevented him from attaining such a miscalculated goal. Nevertheless, Turkey became a dialogue partner of the SCO. Membership to BRICS, on the other hand, was prevented due to Indian opposition. Only recently, another unlikely actor joined the pro-China, pro-Russia ranks from the Turkish right. The MHP, known for its ultra-rightist militant ideology, called on the AKP government to leave NATO and do everything to form an alliance dubbed as TRC with Russia and China. It is quite amazing that the MHP’s anti-NATO call was made only months before the crucial NATO Ankara summit.
In the years preceding the Gülenist coup attempt, Turkey was already exploring the possibility of strategic autonomy in the Western Alliance by procuring air defense systems from China. When there was a strong opposition from the US to Chinese systems, the AKP government reverted to the S-400 missiles after the coup attempt in an effort to balance America and mend fences with Putin’s Russia. Erdoğan’s suspicion that the US had a role in the unsuccessful coup may have influenced such a decision. That drove a wedge between Turkey and the US and cast a shadow on Turkey’s relations with the West.
RETURNING TO THE WEST WITH TRUMP
After a long period of isolation, Trump’s return to power presented a golden opportunity for Erdoğan to improve relations with the US. He did not hesitate to join Trump’s so-called “Board of Peace” on Gaza, swallowing his anti-Israel rhetoric and collaborating with the US in toppling the Assad regime in Syria. However, the Iran war started by the US and Israel imposes challenges that no Turkish government can carry in the long run. Turkey is now more than ever in need of cooperating with other powers to avoid a catastrophe in the region.
Although the MHP is urging Erdoğan to join China and Russia, Erdoğan can never give up links with the West and cozy relations with Trump. He made such an attempt with the S-400s in the past and paid a heavy price.
Russia is a non-starter since it is a declared NATO threat. At any rate, Russia cannot balance a major power since it is unable even to subdue Ukraine. Turkey’s relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia are also impediments for a rapprochement with Russia.
BEIJING LOOKS AWAY
China, on the other hand, is more concerned with its own interests than helping Turkey. The Xinjiang-Uygur issue is a stumbling bloc in the Sino-Turkish relations, although Turkey is trying to soothe Chinese concerns.
China has never expressed a keen interest in Turkey as an economic partner. Turkey may have obtained some moderate loans from China but was never a recipient of a major BRI project. Even after the Iran war, Turkey’s Middle Trade Corridor Project connecting Central Asia to Europe over the Caspian Sea failed to get the desired attention from China. China has not opened the planned BYD car factory in Manisa, most probably due to Turkey’s deteriorating relations with the EU and the lack of legal guarantees for such a big investment.
There is a sizable gap in the bilateral trade between the two countries. The ratio of imports to exports runs at around nine to one in China’s favor with no prospect of diminishing. Heavily dependent on Chinese technology, Turkey cannot provide China with crucial export items. So why should China be concerned?
Turkey finds itself in a desperate love affair with China. This can only be defined as unrequited love.
