By Nergis Demirkaya
The Terror-Free Turkey process, widely dubbed as frozen or stalled, has been revived by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s latest remarks. Erdoğan said the process, now entering its 18th month, has reached a critical juncture requiring much more delicate management: “There is a positive atmosphere. What needs to be done is clear. The process is proceeding as it should.”
According to AKP politicians speaking to Turkey in Depth on condition of anonymity, Erdoğan’s remarks not only dispelled negative perceptions about the process but also signaled that legal work concerning PKK members who have decided to lay down arms will begin soon.
An AKP Central Executive Board member serving on the parliamentary commission on the process said: “We do not see any major problems. There has been a necessary slowdown due to the Iran war. Despite this, the organization has evacuated some caves and handed over certain heavy weapons, including anti-aircraft systems. But this needs to accelerate further.”
Another commission member, who is also senior in the AKP parliamentary group, commented: “Erdoğan’s speech is also an important signal for the start of the legislative process expected from parliament.”
Another AKP commission member, recalling the failed 2013–2015 peace process, also drew attention to the need to start legislation. “We are not acting with the romanticism of the past process. It is progressing slowly because we are being very cautious. The organization still has steps to take, but legislative work must now begin.”
This final comment from a fourth commission member reflects the AKP’s determination: “We attach importance to this process. Concrete steps will be taken. There is no turning back. What will we say to the public otherwise? They won’t believe us. Whatever is required, we must do it.”
A brief note here is needed: Why is the law so important? There are 70,000 investigations and 40,000 prosecutions — cases — related to the PKK. Beyond those in the mountains, the forthcoming law will affect approximately 100,000 people who are being tried or are in prison due to alleged ties to the organization. If the anticipated changes occur, figures frequently mentioned — such as Selahattin Demirtaş and Ahmet Türk, for whom a return to office has been advocated — would benefit, with their sentences lifted or reduced.
AKP SPLIT OVER TIMING
So it seems that the law described as a “return home” measure for PKK members is set to pass. However, there are two competing views within the AKP regarding its timing. One group argues the law should be enacted only after the organization has fully surrendered its weapons. Another contends that the law should be prepared simultaneously and in coordination while the disarmament process is being verified. An AKP official supporting the second view said, “The idea of first laying down arms and then passing the law is neither realistic nor correct. Let us pass the law. Ultimately, we will tie it to conditions — those who have disarmed will benefit from certain rights.”
According to AKP circles, President Erdoğan’s stance on the law has also moved closer to the second position. Expectations have strengthened that a step toward the legislative process may be taken in the coming weeks.
THORNY ISSUES
Even though the timing of the law has yet to be agreed upon, the real challenge will be its content. Once work begins, the parties will face highly contentious issues.
The DEM Party wants to allow all members of the organization — without distinguishing between leaders and members or between those involved in crimes and those not — to return to Turkey and engage in politics. Another key issue is Öcalan’s legal status. It is argued that he should be transferred to a newly built facility on İmralı under a form of “house arrest,” with expanded visitation rights.
For the AKP and MHP, however, these demands are difficult to meet. According to party officials, the broad lines are already clear: members who lay down arms and surrender will appear in court, charges such as membership and propaganda will be dropped, but they will still be punished for their actions. They will also be monitored for three to five years.
The AKP is not inclined to allow the return of PKK leaders to Turkey, nor to open a path for Öcalan’s conditional release under the “right to hope” provision. An AKP Kurdish lawmaker notes that these issues are important for the process but should be addressed later, with an eye on the public reaction. “The moment we mention Öcalan or [Murat] Karayılan, support for the process drops to around 20 percent. Time is needed on this issue.”
It is clear that the government’s stance will not meet the DEM Party’s expectations. When I reminded an AKP official involved in drafting the process report of those expectations, the response signaled how difficult the process would be.
“We said from the very beginning: do not come to the table with maximalist demands. Otherwise, we will have maximalist demands too. That is not how negotiations work. We must find a middle ground,” said the official. Objecting to a blanket law producing results for a single group, the source noted that the laws are applied individually. “Therefore, all members wishing to return will stand before a judge. While trying to satisfy 20 million Kurds, what will we do with 60 million Turks?”
In conclusion, the power to pass legislation in parliament lies with the People’s Alliance formed by the AKP and MHP. However, the AKP needs DEM Party support for President Erdoğan’s potential re-election bid. This dynamic signals that negotiations over a law containing critical issues will be difficult. In other words, if we are to discuss whether the process has “ended” or “stalled,” it is the legislative phase itself that will likely crystalize those debates.
