“The first political party leader to be arrested since the September 12, 1980, military coup era after Selahattin Demirtaş.”
The arrest of Zafer Party Chair Ümit Özdağ was reported in the media with this headline. However, there is no other similarity that would warrant him being mentioned in the same sentence as Demirtaş. In fact, they belong to entirely different worlds and are entirely opposing figures.
Özdağ has been in custody at Silivri Prison for a month since Jan. 21, 2025.
FATHERS AND SONS
Özdağ is a figure firmly positioned at the heart of the Turkist-Nationalist movement, a current as old as the Turkish Republic, now a century old. He gained that place both through his family and his political career.
Russian classical writer Ivan Turgenev’s novel Fathers and Sons is almost a reality in Turkey. Özdağ’s father, Muzaffer Özdağ, was a soldier—one of the key figures behind the Republic’s first military coup on May 27, 1960. However, due to disagreements with the coup leaders, he and his associates, known in history as the Fourteen, were exiled from Turkey. Among these 14 exiled officers was also Alparslan Türkeş, who would later become the founding leader of the MHP, a major political home for Turkish nationalists.
When the coup ended and civilian rule resumed, Türkeş rose to lead the MHP under the title Başbuğ (chieftain), while Muzaffer Özdağ also entered politics within the MHP. However, after a while, their paths diverged—Muzaffer Özdağ left the party and eventually withdrew from politics.
Ümit Özdağ, on the other hand, chose academia, studying political science. Although, at some point, he decided to enter politics—naturally opting for his father’s party. He joined the MHP and was active during the era of Alparslan Türkeş.
His relationship with Devlet Bahçeli, who succeeded Türkeş as leader, can be described as on-again, off-again. Özdağ had aspirations for the party leadership. At one point, he was expelled from the MHP but later returned as a member of parliament upon Bahçeli’s invitation.
In 2017, he was among the party members who rebelled against Bahçeli, alongside Meral Akşener. This revolt eventually led to the founding of the İyi Party.
However, Özdağ also had disagreements with Akşener in the İyi Party. As a result, on August 26, 2021, he established the Zafer Party, finally stepping onto the political stage as its leader.
ANTI-IMMIGRATION AND ANTI-REFUGEE OPPOSITION
For the 4.5 years leading up to Özdağ’s arrest, the Zafer Party was almost exclusively identified with its staunch opposition to immigrants, refugees, and the government's policies on these issues.
An aggressive politician, Özdağ’s confrontations with former Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu have already made political history. One particularly infamous moment was when he posted on social media, addressing Soylu: “I'm coming now. Step outside into the ministry’s courtyard. I’m going to beat you up.” This, too, was a continuation of his harsh rhetoric on immigration.
Despite the fact that his party was largely known only for its anti-immigration stance and had no notable positions on other issues, he managed to reach around 5% support in polls and the elections.
As a result, Özdağ played a crucial role when the 2023 presidential election went to a second round. In the first round, he had supported Sinan Oğan, but when Oğan entered negotiations with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for the runoff, Özdağ, in turn, began bargaining with the opposition candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
AFTER BAHÇELİ INITIATED THE İMRALI PROCESS
Özdağ has linked his arrest to the İmralı process that Bahçeli launched, claiming that he was imprisoned because he is an obstacle to its progress.
It was significant that he made reference to Kaşif Kozinoğlu while entering the prison—previously known as Silivri but renamed Marmara in 2022 due to concerns over its negative image by the district's then MHP-run municipality. Kozinoğlu, known to work at the National Intelligence Organization (MİT), was arrested during the mass round-ups of the Ergenekon operations in 2011 and died in prison. Many, including Özdağ, reject the official explanation that he suffered a heart attack and believe he was killed.
A few days ago, Özdağ sent a message from prison stating that his life is in danger. He elaborated: “I am held in the same environment with dangerous individuals. The presence of PKK and ISIS detainees poses a serious threat to my life.”
He also argued that the İmralı process was aimed at amending the Constitution and that his imprisonment had turned him into a “hostage for Öcalan.”
The primary reason Özdağ believes his detention is linked to the İmralı process is, without a doubt, the MHP's involvement. Since the MHP is deeply embedded in this process, Özdağ thinks the fiercest and most passionate opposition from the nationalist wing will come from his camp, and that his arrest was part of a political purge to clear the way.
The regime change in Syria has somewhat cooled down the heated debate on migrants and asylum seekers in Turkey. This will impact Özdağ and his party’s future. Another expectation for Özdağ and his party is that public sympathy may grow due to the grievances caused by Özdağ’s imprisonment. However, the biggest handicap is, in fact, that very imprisonment. The Zafer Party’s path forward will be very difficult without Özdağ. Moreover, the political future of Özdağ and his party will be shaped by statements expected from İmralı and the new process that will also be decisive for both Turkey and Syria.
