A new U.S. tariff move targeting countries that do business with Iran is placing billions of dollars of Turkey’s trade at risk, with exports to the United States and energy trade with Iran most exposed.
Turkey is among Iran’s key trading partners, alongside China, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and India. Over the past five years, Turkey-Iran trade has averaged $5.7 billion annually. Iran accounts for roughly 1.1% of Turkey’s exports, while the U.S. market represents about 6%, making any tariff-related cost increase particularly sensitive for Turkish exporters.
In response to the violent Iranian crackdown on protests, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that countries engaged in trade with Iran face an additional 25% customs duty on all trade with the United States.
At the press meeting, Foreign Minister Fidan emphasized that there is not yet a presidential executive order on the decision. “No study has been conducted on which country would be affected and how, or which goods would be affected. Therefore, at this stage, there is no concrete presidential decision for us to put on our agenda,” he said.
Turkey’s exports to Iran are concentrated in machinery and spare parts, plastics, chemical products and agricultural goods, while imports are dominated by natural gas, followed by metal products and limited agricultural items.
Professor Hakkı Hakan Yılmaz, director at the Turkey Economic Policy Research Foundation (TEPAV), said the decision could affect Turkey on multiple fronts.
He warned that a 25% cost increase in the U.S. market could significantly weaken Turkish firms’ competitiveness. The most exposed sectors include machinery and spare parts, which account for 25–30% of exports to Iran, followed by plastics and chemical products with a 20–25% share, and agricultural goods at 10–12%. Small and medium-sized manufacturers in organized industrial zones are expected to feel the impact first.
Energy trade is another key vulnerability. More than 60% of Turkey’s imports from Iran consist of natural gas, and any disruption could push energy costs higher, affecting metal processing and other energy-intensive industries.
Economist Sinan Alçın said the tariff move should be read primarily as a pressure tool tied to Iran rather than a purely economic step. “These tariffs function not only as an economic instrument but also as a political one,” Alçın said, adding that the durability of the measure will depend on developments involving Iran.
