Is Mehmet Şimşek missing in action? No. He's still in office, still serving as the minister in charge of the economy. But that very fact is what makes people ask 'When will he step into the light?'
Three years have passed since President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's 2023 election victory. Under normal circumstances, that leaves two years until the next vote. For Erdoğan to run again, he needs an election that's 'early' — even if not dramatically so. Figures close to Erdoğan have even floated April 2028 as the date for that early election. Either way, less than two years remain. The clock is ticking, and that's why all eyes are now on Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek.
POLITICAL ENGINEERING IS DONE — BUT WHAT ABOUT THE ECONOMY
After three years in power, Erdoğan now has the upper hand on two fronts that have been described as 'political engineering operations.'
Through the Kurdish peace process, the DEM Party's alliance ties with the CHP have largely been severed. DEM represents roughly 10% of the electorate. Of course, where DEM's votes ultimately go will depend on the concrete steps taken as the process unfolds, and the party itself is watching 'impatiently' to see what comes next.
The second development working in Erdoğan's favor, compared to three years ago, is the state of the CHP. The main opposition party has effectively split into two camps following the court's 'absolute nullity' ruling. The party is on a path toward division, and a breakaway party is now widely seen as all but certain.
Both of these are major developments that will directly shape voter behavior — and Erdoğan, in his own words, is watching them 'from a safe distance.'
But there is a third front for Erdoğan that is, politically speaking, a matter of life and death: the economy. Inflation. Pensioners. Minimum-wage earners. What Mehmet Şimşek, 59, manages to do in the time that remains will determine whether Erdoğan gets elected again.
DOES ŞİMŞEK HAVE A RABBIT UP HIS SLEEVE?
Şimşek took over the economy portfolio in June 2023. The high inflation and low wages that define the economic crisis had already taken hold before he arrived. Three years into his tenure, inflation still ranks among the highest in the world and refuses to fall below 30 percent. Wages remain suppressed. The Kurdish settlement process and the turmoil within the CHP may not be enough on their own to secure Erdoğan's reelection.
There's a well-worn line from the late politician Süleyman Demirel still on people's minds: empty pots are what topple governments. With less than two years left, Şimşek needs a rabbit to pull out of a hat.
Solving the economic crisis outright, after it has become the country's most stubbornly persistent problem, isn't a realistic expectation at this point. But improving conditions for wage earners before the country goes to the polls wouldn't be a surprise either.
ŞİMŞEK IS A TECHNOCRAT, NOT A POLITICIAN
Commentator Levent Gültekin recently noted that Şimşek doesn't attend any party gatherings, including Erdoğan's parliamentary group meetings. While rank-and-file MPs have their aides scrambling in advance to secure seats in whatever hall Erdoğan is about to address, Şimşek simply doesn't bother with any of that. Şimşek has, in fact, been elected to parliament twice — once for Gaziantep, once for his home province of Batman. Some attach the label 'British' to his name, a nod to his citizenship, but he was born a Kurd in Batman's Gercüş district. Now all eyes are on him, and what he'll actually do once he steps forward is the subject of intense speculation. There's already talk, for instance, of who might lead after Erdoğan — but Şimşek isn't even entertaining that conversation. He doesn't see himself as a politician at all, only as a technocrat doing his job. And 'doing his job,' in his case, means beating the economic crisis. Though there's also a song from the 1970s worth remembering, performed by the late, great Timur Selçuk:
'The economy's ticking along just fine — crisis, there's a crisis, there's a slump…'
