By Nergis Demirkaya
Excluding their early courtship phase, the AKP and MHP have now completed seven years of formal partnership. In their partnership, branded the “People’s Alliance,” the two parties have gone through five electoral contests — one referendum, two general elections, and two local elections.
Like any relationship, this one has had its ups and downs. Many of the rifts that the public interpreted as “cracks” or “crises” within the alliance were quickly smoothed over through mutual statements. But, the crisis of the past two weeks has been among the deepest since the alliance was formed.
NOT PICKING UP
It was a crisis so deep that the alliance’s “temperamental” partner, Bahçeli, refused to answer phone calls and skipped events he had been invited to. AKP officials had no choice but to knock on the MHP’s door to find out what had gone wrong.
According to senior MHP officials, the tension was the culmination of accumulated grievances, but the final straw was the Oct. 19 election in Northern Cyprus. Before the results were even finalized, Bahçeli issued a blistering statement against Tufan Erhürman — the new president who had said that even a federation could be discussed. President Erdoğan and the Foreign Ministry, however, ignored Bahçeli’s outburst and released their usual congratulatory messages instead.
The disregard of his statement infuriated Bahçeli. He repeated his words at his party’s group meeting and even gave an interview. The AKP realized the situation had escalated into a crisis during the Republic Day ceremonies on Oct. 29, when Bahçeli conspicuously skipped all official events marking Turkey’s national holiday. Behind the scenes, senior AKP figures — from both Parliament and the party headquarters — reached out to MHP leadership, confirming that Bahçeli had gone completely silent. The messages gathered from MHP intermediaries were relayed directly to President Erdoğan.
ERDOĞAN BACKTRACKS
President Erdoğan, informed of Bahçeli’s discontent over Cyprus, gave him what he wanted. Speaking on Nov. 3, Erdoğan said that Cyprus had been added to the “menu” of a new imperialist game and voiced full support for the Turkish Cypriot struggle on the basis of a two-state solution. The next day, the pro-MHP daily Türkgün featured his words in its headline — signaling that the point had been made. Bahçeli, in turn, spoke at his next parliamentary group meeting as a leader who had brought Erdoğan around to his position, declaring that there was no crisis within the alliance.
ACCUSATIONS AND COMPLAINTS
As in past cases, this crisis was ultimately patched up — but tensions between the two parties have been mounting, and several issues could easily spark new confrontations. In AKP circles, there are grumblings that the MHP gets everything it wants, especially in the security bureaucracy — the police and the judiciary. Rumors abound that in appointments, public tenders, and investments, MHP references take priority while AKP members are treated like stepchildren. Some even claim that the MHP enjoys all the benefits of partnership without assuming any of the burdens.
MHP insiders, for their part, bristle at this perception. They point out that during the second term of the alliance, the party hasn’t even taken a single ministry, and that Bahçeli turned down the offer of a vice-presidency after the 2023 elections. As for claims of favoritism in bureaucratic appointments, they retort: “Show us one governor appointed for being close to the MHP, and we’ll accept your accusation.”
While MHP figures justify the alliance in terms of lofty ideals such as “the survival of the state,” it is no secret that they are uneasy about recent financial probes that led to the arrests of people photographed with Bahçeli, and about the sidelining of known MHP-linked officials in police and judicial appointments. Rumors of fierce rivalry between the two parties within the bureaucracy are widespread. The MHP’s frustration with the prolonged Istanbul Municipality investigations has also been openly voiced.
UNMET EXPECTATIONS
The rift is not limited to bureaucratic matters; it runs deep into politics as well. During the “Terror-Free Turkey” process, the MHP has consistently raised the stakes, viewing the AKP’s steps as insufficient. AKP members, however, remind their partners that it is Erdoğan — not Bahçeli — who will need to secure over 50 percent of the vote in the next election, with one arguing: “We have to act in line with voter behavior. Their calculus is not the same as ours.”
Another factor behind the recent strain is Erdoğan’s effort to broaden the alliance. Having already built ties with HÜDA-PAR, the DSP, and the BBP, Erdoğan now seeks to add DEVA, Gelecek and Saadet parties to the fold. Analysts suggest that for any potential constitutional reform or early election, the AKP also keeps one eye on the DEM Party. The MHP is not opposed to these new outreach efforts — it simply does not want to be relegated to a supporting role in a partnership in which it sees itself as a main actor. Bahçeli’s recent outbursts are widely read as a warning: “A People’s Alliance without the MHP will struggle to move forward.”
In sum, after seven turbulent years together, the AKP-MHP partnership has managed to renew its vows after every quarrel — but the scars of each conflict are accumulating, carrying the risk of unexpected complications ahead.
