Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Next month Antalya hosts COP31, Nov. 9-20. Ankara has sent two invitations to Cyprus: one, through the conference organizers, to the president of the Republic of Cyprus, and one, from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, to the president of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
Two deadly maritime disasters off Northern Cyprus and in the Marmara Sea have raised questions over oversight failures within maritime transport, leaving at least 20 dead and 28 missing while triggering political backlash against officials.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres' July 27-29 visit to Cyprus produced no concrete resolution plan or new timetable. Ankara welcomed efforts with caution and Deputy Foreign Minister Mehmet Kemal Bozay headed to Northern Cyprus after the talks.
Following Tufan Erhürman’s landslide victory in the presidential election with almost 63% of the vote in Northern Cyprus, the Republican Turkish Party (CTP)—which Erhürman formerly led—is preparing to take power in the upcoming general elections, expected by January 2026 at the latest. Sıla Usar İncirli, 54, the CTP’s new and first female chair, said that the party favors a federation model as part of the search for a solution in Cyprus, and they have begun drafting their government program.
In response to the reinforcement of defense in Southern Cyprus by Greece and some European countries due to the Iran conflict, Turkey deployed F-16 fighter jets and additional air defense systems to the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) for the first time in 28 years.
Turkey deployed the Hisar air defense system in Northern Cyprus, soon after the procurement of the Israeli Barak MX air defense system in the South.
South Cyprus is seeking large-scale military support from both the United States and the European Union, while expanding defense cooperation with Israel, in a move raising concerns in Ankara and Northern Cyprus.
Tufan Erhürman, the newly elected president of Northern Cyprus, voiced guarded expectations ahead of his first trilateral meeting on Dec. 11 with Greek Cypriot figure Nikos Christodoulides and UN envoy María Ángela Holguín. Speaking to Turkish journalists, Erhürman said that shifting regional dynamics and a long record of unsuccessful rounds make a rapid return to substantive talks unrealistic — particularly without agreed-upon parameters.
At their first meeting in Ankara, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and newly elected Northern Cyprus President Tufan Erhürman restated their long-held positions on the Cyprus issue — this time with a measured but noticeable distance.
The election of Tufan Erhürman as president of Northern Cyprus rekindled hopes for renewed negotiations with the Greek Cypriots.Erhürman’s opening statements — stressing democratic tolerance, representation and the need to reopen talks under UN auspices with political equality as his “red line” — set a constructive tone: “There are no losers in this election. The Turkish Cypriot people won, our children won, our brotherhood won.” Yet those words of unity sit alongside firm warnings: political equality cannot be treated as a bargaining chip, and any new process must have meaningful limits and commitments from the outset.
Tufan Erhürman became the new president of Northern Cyprus in Sunday’s election—winning twice as many votes as incumbent Ersin Tatar. Erhürman is a familiar name among Turkish Cypriots but not to the Turkish public. A seasoned politician who has served both as prime minister and party leader, he joins a line of Cypriot leaders whose names rarely surface in Turkey outside moments of crisis. Yet, like some of his predecessors, Mehmet Ali Talat and Mustafa Akıncı—both presidents from the same social-democratic tradition—his story also crosses paths with Ankara’s academic and political world.
Recent election results in Northern Cyprus have stirred visible unease within Turkey’s ruling alliance, particularly in the far-right MHP, even as the AKP maintained a controlled response, delivering expected statements despite its apparent preferences.