Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
As Armenia heads toward the pivotal June 7 elections — widely seen as critical for the continuity of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s peace agenda — Turkey has accelerated the normalization process, while Russia has intensified pressure on Yerevan through sanctions.
The DEM Party is pushing the government to start taking legislative steps for the Kurdish peace process by announcing a framework law, yet the government is determined not to take any step before the PKK’s disarmament has been verified and confirmed. DEM
Since the court voided the CHP's 2023 party congress, the main opposition has been unable to untangle the knot — and each new court decision pulls it tighter. The question is whether the party can hold an extraordinary congress to break the deadlock. But the forces shaping what comes next run deeper: when and how the CHP headquarters under Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, 77, will move to press disciplinary charges, expelling some figures; whether the parliamentary immunity of ousted chair Özgür Özel, 51, and his allies — implicated by recent testimonies from Antalya and Uşak — will be lifted; and when a new party will be established.
Turkey's oldest and main opposition party, the CHP, is now effectively divided in two after a court annulled the party's November 2023 congress and reinstated former chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in place of Özgür Özel. The split became more visible when both camps held rallies simultaneously at 2 p.m. on May 30. Kılıçdaroğlu returned to party headquarters to chants of 'Kılıçdaroğlu, the people's hope' — a stark reversal from just days earlier, when another crowd had branded him a 'traitor' and 'the AKP's hope' on May 24, reacting to the court-ordered change in the party leadership carried out with police support. The first head-to-head show of strength between the two camps laid bare a simple reality: Özel commands greater grassroots support, but Kılıçdaroğlu holds the formal authority to run the party.
Selling pressure intensified on Istanbul’s stock exchange today following a court ruling of "absolute nullity" regarding the main opposition CHP congress. The benchmark BIST 100 index plunged over 6%, triggering a market-wide circuit breaker. The banking index took an even heavier hit, dropping more than 8% to close at 13,163 points.
One of the most concrete steps yet in the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia—launched in 2021—has been taken with a move toward direct trade between the two countries. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is heading into a June 7 election widely seen as a vote of confidence on his parallel agendas of steering the country toward the West while pursuing peace with Azerbaijan and normalization with Turkey. Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Öncü Keçeli announced on X on May 13 that bureaucratic preparations for the launch of direct trade between Turkey and Armenia had been completed as of May 11.
Parliament approved the first six articles of a landmark bill that includes a ban on children under the age of 15 from using social media platforms. Under the new rules expected to pass as a whole on April 14, social network providers will be prohibited from offering services to children who have not reached the age of 15.
“Am I obliged to answer this question?” was the reply of Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan when he was asked about behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts that, according to the anchorwoman, had succeeded in stopping ballistic missile attacks from Iran against Turkey.
"This political case will collapse," Istanbul Mayor and the CHP's presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu declared repeatedly while delivering the last remarks on the 15th session of the corruption hearing. The courtroom was again full like the first days of the hearing as many were expecting a court ruling on release of several defendants. Only 18 of those under pre-trial detention were released, according to the midnight interim ruling. As expected, İmamoğlu’s executive assistant Kadriye Kasapoğlu and low profile figures like the drivers or workers were released but former CHP MP Aykut Erdoğdu was not on the list.
There is no clear timeline for progress in the Kurdish process despite the post-Ramadan Bayram and April expectations on both sides.
The war in Gaza has already changed the dynamics in the Middle East. Before the region was able to digest all these changes, another front emerged: the confrontation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran that expanded in geographic and political scope.
In peril since the breakdown of the first Kurdish peace process in 2015, Turkish democracy is at a new threshold. On the one hand, the Parliament is expected to take up legislative measures to address the Kurdish problem and, on the other hand, the appointment of Akın Gürlek as the minister of justice suggests judicial suppression and anti-democratic measures are here to stay.