Analysis
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Legislation designed to ensure the surrender of thousands of armed Kurdish militants will be passed before the end of the summer as the government tries to push the high-tension disarmament process over the line, according to remarks from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş.
The peace process, dubbed the Terror-Free Turkey, now awaits the 'framework law,' expected to be submitted before parliament goes into its summer recess. There appears to be no consensus, however, on the bill's exact timing, scope and the conditions on the ground. While the process remains in the waiting room, the Interior Ministry took a concrete step, lifting thousands of search points and checkpoints in the terror-affected region. The pro-Kurdish DEM Party, through all its spokespeople, is asking 'what the law is waiting for.' But reading between the lines of AKP and DEM Party statements reveals disagreements at the draft stage.
The DEM Party is once again pushing the government to take legislative steps advancing the Kurdish peace process, while the government instead asks for concrete steps from the PKK first.
The DEM Party is pushing the government to start taking legislative steps for the Kurdish peace process by announcing a framework law, yet the government is determined not to take any step before the PKK’s disarmament has been verified and confirmed. DEM
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has fueled hope for progress in the Kurdish process but his stance doesn’t amount to real movement, according to the DEM Party. Soon after dismissing claims of a deadlock in the "Terror-Free Turkey" process as "noise" at the April 23 reception, Erdoğan reiterated that the process is advancing as intended and urged all actors to act responsibly during a turbulent regional period.
There is no clear timeline for progress in the Kurdish process despite the post-Ramadan Bayram and April expectations on both sides.
In peril since the breakdown of the first Kurdish peace process in 2015, Turkish democracy is at a new threshold. On the one hand, the Parliament is expected to take up legislative measures to address the Kurdish problem and, on the other hand, the appointment of Akın Gürlek as the minister of justice suggests judicial suppression and anti-democratic measures are here to stay.
Following the consensus between Syria’s interim government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), momentum has returned to Turkey’s long-running efforts to end the decades-long armed conflict and address the Kurdish question through political and legal channels. This renewed dynamic has also pushed the “right to hope” for PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan back to the center of the political agenda.
An operation by the Syrian army targeting Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo has fueled tensions in Ankara between the two main actors of Turkey’s peace process, even as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan says he remains optimistic for a resolution in the southern neighbor.
Developments in Syria are emerging as a potential block to Turkey’s push for Kurdish peace. With the March 10 Agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Damascus nearing its implementation deadline, Ankara is increasing pressure for compliance.
The parliamentary commission formed to pave the way for a new Kurdish peace process remains stuck over whether its members should visit jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan. A planned session of the commission has been postponed once again, even as hopes rise for the release of imprisoned Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtaş following a third ruling by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR).
The photos taken at the start of the new legislative year, in which President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan posed with chairs of opposition parties, including AKP breakaways, in the absence of the CHP, revealed the contest between the AKP and the CHP to win their support. After the images went viral, Erdoğan renewed his call for a new constitution more forcefully, while his ally, MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli, insisted that the parliamentary commission visit PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan in İmralı and urged Öcalan to call on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to lay down arms. The same day, slogans in Kurdish for Öcalan’s freedom — “Biji Serok Apo” — were chanted at the DEM Party’s group meeting. The party, which holds the third-largest number of seats in parliament, could significantly alter the political dynamics if it supports a constitutional change. While the photos of opposition figures with Erdoğan drew sharp criticism in the opposition media, concerned about alienating them, CHP Chair Özgür Özel personally called all opposition party chairs to ease the row.