Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Turkey made simultaneous overtures to Iraq and Syria at a critical moment for the peace process, as the government prepares to submit the bill to parliament before the summer recess. National Intelligence Organization (MİT) chief İbrahim Kalın completed a three-day tour of Iraq while Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi held security talks in Damascus.
The peace process, dubbed the Terror-Free Turkey, now awaits the 'framework law,' expected to be submitted before parliament goes into its summer recess. There appears to be no consensus, however, on the bill's exact timing, scope and the conditions on the ground. While the process remains in the waiting room, the Interior Ministry took a concrete step, lifting thousands of search points and checkpoints in the terror-affected region. The pro-Kurdish DEM Party, through all its spokespeople, is asking 'what the law is waiting for.' But reading between the lines of AKP and DEM Party statements reveals disagreements at the draft stage.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has signaled that the long-awaited framework bill aimed at ending the PKK's decades-long armed struggle will be submitted to parliament soon.
The DEM Party is once again pushing the government to take legislative steps advancing the Kurdish peace process, while the government instead asks for concrete steps from the PKK first.
The DEM Party is pushing the government to start taking legislative steps for the Kurdish peace process by announcing a framework law, yet the government is determined not to take any step before the PKK’s disarmament has been verified and confirmed. DEM
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has fueled hope for progress in the Kurdish process but his stance doesn’t amount to real movement, according to the DEM Party. Soon after dismissing claims of a deadlock in the "Terror-Free Turkey" process as "noise" at the April 23 reception, Erdoğan reiterated that the process is advancing as intended and urged all actors to act responsibly during a turbulent regional period.
In peril since the breakdown of the first Kurdish peace process in 2015, Turkish democracy is at a new threshold. On the one hand, the Parliament is expected to take up legislative measures to address the Kurdish problem and, on the other hand, the appointment of Akın Gürlek as the minister of justice suggests judicial suppression and anti-democratic measures are here to stay.
Following the consensus between Syria’s interim government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), momentum has returned to Turkey’s long-running efforts to end the decades-long armed conflict and address the Kurdish question through political and legal channels. This renewed dynamic has also pushed the “right to hope” for PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan back to the center of the political agenda.
The expected has happened. The “new peace process,” now more than a year old, has fallen under the shadow of Syria. Map-altering clashes between the new Damascus government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), whose backbone is formed by Kurds, have driven a wedge between the AKP-MHP ruling bloc and the DEM Party in Turkey.
An operation by the Syrian army targeting Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo has fueled tensions in Ankara between the two main actors of Turkey’s peace process, even as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan says he remains optimistic for a resolution in the southern neighbor.
Developments in Syria are emerging as a potential block to Turkey’s push for Kurdish peace. With the March 10 Agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Damascus nearing its implementation deadline, Ankara is increasing pressure for compliance.
As domestic political tensions remain high following a parliamentary visit to PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan on İmralı Island on Nov. 24, the National Solidarity, Brotherhood and Democracy Commission has again delayed its meeting. The commission will now convene for its 19th session on Dec. 4, ten days after the visit.