Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Most market participants expect the central bank to keep the policy rate unchanged at 37% when it meets on July 23, but pressure is building for a cut and some experts are calling for a wholesale shift in monetary policy.
Foreign investors' confidence in Turkish equities is under mounting pressure as two of the world's leading index providers signaled Istanbul's stock market could face a downgrade. Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) issued another warning regarding investment accessibility and shareholder transparency, announcing it may re-evaluate free-float structures on a company-by-company basis and reclassify certain shareholders as 'non-free float' to address distorted calculations driven by coordinated fund actions.
Turkey's political agenda is expected to pivot sharply from diplomacy to domestic maneuvering as post-NATO scenarios dominate the discussion from July 9 onward. The conclusion of the NATO Ankara Summit, widely seen as an international success for Turkey and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan personally, has triggered intense political speculation amid increasing pressure on dissidents.
During the AKP’s 33rd Consultation and Assessment meeting in Sapanca, lawmakers criticized Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek over soaring living costs and low retirement pensions.
Engineers at Turkey's first nuclear power plant have finished a critical test as part of preparations for the launch planned by the end of 2026, the Energy Ministry said. Technicians successfully loaded 163 simulated fuel assemblies into the reactor pressure vessel of the first unit at the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant. The operation is a major milestone in the launch of the country’s first nuclear power facility.
Questions about the future of Turkey-Armenia normalization have grown after Turkish Foreign Ministry removed key wording from its statement on Armenian elections, putting pressure on Armenia rather than also pushing Azerbaijan and it took President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan four days to congratulate the Armenian prime minister on his election win.
As Armenia heads toward the pivotal June 7 elections — widely seen as critical for the continuity of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s peace agenda — Turkey has accelerated the normalization process, while Russia has intensified pressure on Yerevan through sanctions.
Since the court voided the CHP's 2023 party congress, the main opposition has been unable to untangle the knot — and each new court decision pulls it tighter. The question is whether the party can hold an extraordinary congress to break the deadlock. But the forces shaping what comes next run deeper: when and how the CHP headquarters under Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, 77, will move to press disciplinary charges, expelling some figures; whether the parliamentary immunity of ousted chair Özgür Özel, 51, and his allies — implicated by recent testimonies from Antalya and Uşak — will be lifted; and when a new party will be established.
Selling pressure intensified on Istanbul’s stock exchange today following a court ruling of "absolute nullity" regarding the main opposition CHP congress. The benchmark BIST 100 index plunged over 6%, triggering a market-wide circuit breaker. The banking index took an even heavier hit, dropping more than 8% to close at 13,163 points.
There is no clear timeline for progress in the Kurdish process despite the post-Ramadan Bayram and April expectations on both sides.
CHP Chair Özgür Özel spent the Bayram holiday and the following days pressing his attack against new Justice Minister Akın Gürlek, accusing him of illicit enrichment and corruption.
In peril since the breakdown of the first Kurdish peace process in 2015, Turkish democracy is at a new threshold. On the one hand, the Parliament is expected to take up legislative measures to address the Kurdish problem and, on the other hand, the appointment of Akın Gürlek as the minister of justice suggests judicial suppression and anti-democratic measures are here to stay.