Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
The war in Gaza has already changed the dynamics in the Middle East. Before the region was able to digest all these changes, another front emerged: the confrontation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran that expanded in geographic and political scope.
The intended target of the ballistic missile launched from Iran and intercepted on Turkish airspace on March 4 remains disputed. While Turkey said the missile was heading toward the eastern Mediterranean, NATO said the target was Turkey, and U.S. officials pointed to the location, Incirlik Air Base. Iran, however, denied that Turkey was the intended target.
A former top prosecutor, wanted for nearly a decade over his alleged ties to the Gülenist movement, which Turkey officially designated as a terrorist group, was arrested after police found him hiding in a secret compartment inside a wardrobe.
Photographs from two separate locations in Germany taken in mid February reveal the ambiguous and intriguing position of Turkey in Europe’s geostrategic landscape.
This year’s Munich Security Conference (MSC) held lively discussions on the global security environment, especially in Europe, and the collapse of the rules-based international order. Strained transatlantic relations, the Ukrainian War, and Iran, all burning matters for Turkey, were on the agenda. Figures such as Marco Rubio, Friedrich Merz, Emmanuel Macron, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy reached global audiences from the MSC. Turkey was not heard.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hosted Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić in Ankara, but his visit was kept off the public schedule until the last minute.
Following the consensus between Syria’s interim government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), momentum has returned to Turkey’s long-running efforts to end the decades-long armed conflict and address the Kurdish question through political and legal channels. This renewed dynamic has also pushed the “right to hope” for PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan back to the center of the political agenda.
Efforts by conservative and right-wing parties to build a “third way” outside the ruling and main opposition blocs are gaining momentum, as Saadet Party and YRP — both rooted in Turkey’s first political Islamist tradition, the National View (Milli Görüş) shaped by Necmettin Erbakan — step up talks on election cooperation. The renewed contacts signal a shift in relations between the two parties, which had previously been at odds over the movement’s legacy following the founding of YRP in 2018. This time, the talks focus on bringing together Saadet Party, YRP, Gelecek Party and DEVA Party under a common framework, with a broader alliance that could also include the İYİ Party.
Hearings have begun in a corruption probe involving municipalities run by the main opposition CHP, following investigations launched in March 2025. The case marks the first major trial stemming from the allegations, ahead of a separate prosecution involving Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu that is set to begin on March 9. The CHP’s legal strategy and the court’s approach to the defendants are expected to shape Turkey’s political agenda over the many years the trials are expected to take.
Turkey took a new step in its engagement with minority communities when a Yazidi delegation was received in Ankara by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş.
The expected has happened. The “new peace process,” now more than a year old, has fallen under the shadow of Syria. Map-altering clashes between the new Damascus government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), whose backbone is formed by Kurds, have driven a wedge between the AKP-MHP ruling bloc and the DEM Party in Turkey.
An investigation by the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office into alleged drug use and prostitution involving celebrities has widened to include Istanbul Municipality and its jailed mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, following media reports referring to secret hotel rooms, gambling, private parties and jet travel.