Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Despite expectations that early election scenarios would dissolve following the absolute nullity ruling that split the CHP into two, the debate has not ended.
The central bank kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 37% for the third consecutive meeting on June 11, matching the consensus forecast of economists. The Monetary Policy Committee also held its overnight lending rate at 40% and its borrowing rate at 35.5%. The central bank last altered its policy rate in January with a 100-basis-point cut.
Selling pressure intensified on Istanbul’s stock exchange today following a court ruling of "absolute nullity" regarding the main opposition CHP congress. The benchmark BIST 100 index plunged over 6%, triggering a market-wide circuit breaker. The banking index took an even heavier hit, dropping more than 8% to close at 13,163 points.
Three retired Turkish diplomats have publicly voiced their support for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan ahead of the country's parliamentary elections scheduled for early June, following a joint visit to Yerevan.
MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli’s call to grant the PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan a title involving the word “peace” drew support from the DEM Party and sharp criticism from the right-wing opposition, as all eyes turned to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
CHP Chair Özgür Özel continued visiting parties in support of a by-election. While DEM and left-wing parties supported the offer, smaller parties gave stronger support for an early election rather than a by-election.
CHP Chair Özgür Özel spent the Bayram holiday and the following days pressing his attack against new Justice Minister Akın Gürlek, accusing him of illicit enrichment and corruption.
Following the consensus between Syria’s interim government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), momentum has returned to Turkey’s long-running efforts to end the decades-long armed conflict and address the Kurdish question through political and legal channels. This renewed dynamic has also pushed the “right to hope” for PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan back to the center of the political agenda.
Efforts by conservative and right-wing parties to build a “third way” outside the ruling and main opposition blocs are gaining momentum, as Saadet Party and YRP — both rooted in Turkey’s first political Islamist tradition, the National View (Milli Görüş) shaped by Necmettin Erbakan — step up talks on election cooperation. The renewed contacts signal a shift in relations between the two parties, which had previously been at odds over the movement’s legacy following the founding of YRP in 2018. This time, the talks focus on bringing together Saadet Party, YRP, Gelecek Party and DEVA Party under a common framework, with a broader alliance that could also include the İYİ Party.
Hearings have begun in a corruption probe involving municipalities run by the main opposition CHP, following investigations launched in March 2025. The case marks the first major trial stemming from the allegations, ahead of a separate prosecution involving Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu that is set to begin on March 9. The CHP’s legal strategy and the court’s approach to the defendants are expected to shape Turkey’s political agenda over the many years the trials are expected to take.
An investigation by the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office into alleged drug use and prostitution involving celebrities has widened to include Istanbul Municipality and its jailed mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, following media reports referring to secret hotel rooms, gambling, private parties and jet travel.
As domestic political tensions remain high following a parliamentary visit to PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan on İmralı Island on Nov. 24, the National Solidarity, Brotherhood and Democracy Commission has again delayed its meeting. The commission will now convene for its 19th session on Dec. 4, ten days after the visit.