Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
In the latest episode of a legal battle between the central government and the opposition-led Istanbul municipality, a Turkish appeals court on June 4 temporarily blocked the transfer of the historic Basilica Cistern, a major tourist attraction of Istanbul, from the municipality to the Directorate General of Foundations.
Protesting coal miners from Doruk Madencilik have returned to the capital after a government-backed deal to pay their overdue wages failed.
Since the court voided the CHP's 2023 party congress, the main opposition has been unable to untangle the knot — and each new court decision pulls it tighter. The question is whether the party can hold an extraordinary congress to break the deadlock. But the forces shaping what comes next run deeper: when and how the CHP headquarters under Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, 77, will move to press disciplinary charges, expelling some figures; whether the parliamentary immunity of ousted chair Özgür Özel, 51, and his allies — implicated by recent testimonies from Antalya and Uşak — will be lifted; and when a new party will be established.
Mehmet Pehlivan, the detained lawyer for jailed Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, drew parallels between their cases and political trials in Brazil in testimony that electrified a courtroom packed with lawyers in Silivri.
On March 26, the 11th hearing in the trial of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and his co-defendants on corruption charges was concluded, with proceedings shifting away from procedural debates toward the substance of testimonies. Discussions centered on statements by defendants and individuals who later withdrew their testimonies after invoking the remorse provisions, reviving debate over the strength of the indictment.
From Donald Trump’s perspective, he has just one interlocutor in Turkey: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. No criticism of the United States — no matter how harsh — coming from presidential advisors, the AKP spokesperson, the Foreign Ministry, or the MHP chair matters in the slightest to Trump.
With inflation at 30.89% annually and 0.89% month‑on‑month in December, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), the latest pension adjustments have ignited discontent among retirees. Most retired workers and tradespeople will receive only a 12.19% increase, while public servant retirees are slated for an 18.60% rise.
The Turkish Armed Forces has been testing joint operations capabilities after a rapid increase in the number of national defense industry products in its inventory, primarily electronic warfare and air defense systems, warships, and unmanned aerial vehicles. Baykar's AI-powered mini cruise missile Kemankeş-1 continues to undergo firing tests from the strategic-class Bayraktar Akıncı UCAV. “The Kemankeş smart munitions integration and testing activities carried out with the Akıncı strategic UAV platform, capable of flying at an altitude of 40,000 feet, provide serious indications of Turkey's hyper warfare capacity development,” Dr. Can Kasapoğlu, senior researcher at the Hudson Institute, said.
Amid a sustained crackdown on opposition-run municipalities, CHP Chair Özgür Özel has begun unveiling alleged corruption within government-affiliated municipalities. Özel disclosed specific dates, figures, locations, names—and even codes linked to a secret witness—to support his claims. His announcement follows the release of the first indictment involving businessperson Aziz İhsan Aktaş, whose testimony led to the arrest of seven CHP mayors.
The photos taken at the start of the new legislative year, in which President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan posed with chairs of opposition parties, including AKP breakaways, in the absence of the CHP, revealed the contest between the AKP and the CHP to win their support. After the images went viral, Erdoğan renewed his call for a new constitution more forcefully, while his ally, MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli, insisted that the parliamentary commission visit PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan in İmralı and urged Öcalan to call on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to lay down arms. The same day, slogans in Kurdish for Öcalan’s freedom — “Biji Serok Apo” — were chanted at the DEM Party’s group meeting. The party, which holds the third-largest number of seats in parliament, could significantly alter the political dynamics if it supports a constitutional change. While the photos of opposition figures with Erdoğan drew sharp criticism in the opposition media, concerned about alienating them, CHP Chair Özgür Özel personally called all opposition party chairs to ease the row.
The new legislative year of the Turkish Parliament opened without the CHP, which boycotted the session in protest at President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the ongoing crackdown—starting debate over parliamentary legitimacy. Erdoğan swiftly countered the criticism, declaring that “legitimacy comes from the people.” He followed his remarks with a symbolic gesture: shaking hands with all parliamentary group leaders, including first-time photo-ops after many years with the heads of AKP offshoots DEVA and the Gelecek Party. Notably, Erdoğan coolly used his address to tell the pro-Kurdish DEM Party that the next phase on the Kurdish issue will be implementation. Praising the work of the National Solidarity, Brotherhood and Democracy Commission for holding 12 meetings so far with broad participation from political parties, Erdoğan said, “Once the commission completes its work, we will undoubtedly have very important findings in hand. The next phase will be the implementation of the proposals raised within the commission, as a result of consultation and consensus.”
The CHP has received a brief reprieve from ongoing legal turmoil as a lawsuit seeking to annul its 38th Ordinary Congress—held on November 4–5, 2023—was postponed to Oct. 24. The delay offers the party a short breathing space. Now it is preparing for a new extraordinary congress on Sept. 21 that might address some of the legal challenges it faces. But the crackdown against CHP municipalities is pressing on. In the latest development, Bayrampaşa Mayor Hasan Mutlu became the 12th CHP mayor arrested in Istanbul—and the 18th nationwide—since the crackdown began in October 2024.