Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
As the CHP’s criminal court case on its 2023 party congress nears, speculation that the former administration under Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu will replace the chairmanship of Özgür Özel has resurfaced. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s remarks fueled the flames, as did Kılıçdaroğlu’s snub of Özel at a funeral.
In peril since the breakdown of the first Kurdish peace process in 2015, Turkish democracy is at a new threshold. On the one hand, the Parliament is expected to take up legislative measures to address the Kurdish problem and, on the other hand, the appointment of Akın Gürlek as the minister of justice suggests judicial suppression and anti-democratic measures are here to stay.
Efforts by conservative and right-wing parties to build a “third way” outside the ruling and main opposition blocs are gaining momentum, as Saadet Party and YRP — both rooted in Turkey’s first political Islamist tradition, the National View (Milli Görüş) shaped by Necmettin Erbakan — step up talks on election cooperation. The renewed contacts signal a shift in relations between the two parties, which had previously been at odds over the movement’s legacy following the founding of YRP in 2018. This time, the talks focus on bringing together Saadet Party, YRP, Gelecek Party and DEVA Party under a common framework, with a broader alliance that could also include the İYİ Party.
Hearings have begun in a corruption probe involving municipalities run by the main opposition CHP, following investigations launched in March 2025. The case marks the first major trial stemming from the allegations, ahead of a separate prosecution involving Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu that is set to begin on March 9. The CHP’s legal strategy and the court’s approach to the defendants are expected to shape Turkey’s political agenda over the many years the trials are expected to take.
Turkey is considering generating cash flow by exporting newly built naval platforms originally designed to meet domestic requirements. The first of 10 light corvette-class vessels planned for the Turkish Navy, the TCG Akhisar (P-1220), was sold straight to Romania without entering the Turkish inventory after its completion in December 2025. Ankara is now in talks to sell two newly built I-class (Istanbul/İstif-class) frigates to Indonesia.
Parliament approved legislation raising the minimum monthly pension to 20,000 lira ($460), an 18.4% increase, with effect from January. The bill, benefiting about 4.9 million retirees, was adopted by the Parliament with the support of the MHP lawmakers amid barbed debate.
A major arms fair in Istanbul exposed the tension between the Defense Ministry and the Presidency’s Secretariat of Defense Industries.
The brief respite after a court rejected a bid to unseat main opposition CHP Chair Özgür Özel and annul the party’s 2023 congress has now given way to a widening espionage probe. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and his campaign director Necati Özkan were rearrested on espionage charges, while a trustee was appointed to TELE1 television channel and its editor-in-chief, Merdan Yanardağ, was also taken into custody on Oct. 24.
There is a way of establishing a working relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump. First you have to make sure you see him as a smart, respectable world leader. That’s the easy part. Then you have to lure him with trade deals, making sure he is the winning side. Therefore, it comes as no surprise when Turkey unilaterally dropped its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products on Sept. 22, a few days before the scheduled meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House. Buzzwords are important for Trump, and tariff is one of them. The tariffs, which covered products including passenger cars, fruit, rice, tobacco, alcoholic beverages, solid fuels, and chemical products, were introduced in 2018 in response to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports enacted during Trump's first term in office.
The CHP has received a brief reprieve from ongoing legal turmoil as a lawsuit seeking to annul its 38th Ordinary Congress—held on November 4–5, 2023—was postponed to Oct. 24. The delay offers the party a short breathing space. Now it is preparing for a new extraordinary congress on Sept. 21 that might address some of the legal challenges it faces. But the crackdown against CHP municipalities is pressing on. In the latest development, Bayrampaşa Mayor Hasan Mutlu became the 12th CHP mayor arrested in Istanbul—and the 18th nationwide—since the crackdown began in October 2024.
Is cooperation among nationalist parties possible? What are the prospects and obstacles? Turkish politics has been polarized into two main blocs since the transition to the presidential system: the AKP on one side and the CHP on the other. While the AKP kept parties like the MHP, BBP, and HÜDA-Par in its orbit, the CHP advanced by forging open or tacit alliances with the DEM Party and İYİ Party. But this opposition front collapsed after the defeat in the 2023 elections.
The Revenue Administration has announced the top income taxpayers in 2024, with most names once again kept confidential. For the fourth year in a row, Baykar Chair of the Board Selçuk Bayraktar, who is also President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s son-in-law, ranked first, paying 2.77 billion lira in income tax.