Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

TURKEY EASES ARMENIA TRADE EMBARGO AS PASHINYAN SEEKS MANDATE FOR REGIONAL PEACE PUSH
Foreign Affairs May 29, 2026

TURKEY EASES ARMENIA TRADE EMBARGO AS PASHINYAN SEEKS MANDATE FOR REGIONAL PEACE PUSH

One of the most concrete steps yet in the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia—launched in 2021—has been taken with a move toward direct trade between the two countries. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is heading into a June 7 election widely seen as a vote of confidence on his parallel agendas of steering the country toward the West while pursuing peace with Azerbaijan and normalization with Turkey. Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Öncü Keçeli announced on X on May 13 that bureaucratic preparations for the launch of direct trade between Turkey and Armenia had been completed as of May 11.

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NATO, U.S. SAY TURKEY WAS TARGET; ANKARA HOLDS BACK
Deep Dive May 29, 2026

NATO, U.S. SAY TURKEY WAS TARGET; ANKARA HOLDS BACK

The intended target of the ballistic missile launched from Iran and intercepted on Turkish airspace on March 4 remains disputed. While Turkey said the missile was heading toward the eastern Mediterranean, NATO said the target was Turkey, and U.S. officials pointed to the location, Incirlik Air Base. Iran, however, denied that Turkey was the intended target.

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AT A DEMOCRATIC THRESHOLD, MIXED JUDICIAL SIGNALS
Deep Dive May 29, 2026

AT A DEMOCRATIC THRESHOLD, MIXED JUDICIAL SIGNALS

In peril since the breakdown of the first Kurdish peace process in 2015, Turkish democracy is at a new threshold. On the one hand, the Parliament is expected to take up legislative measures to address the Kurdish problem and, on the other hand, the appointment of Akın Gürlek as the minister of justice suggests judicial suppression and anti-democratic measures are here to stay.

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CASH FLOW BECOMES PRIORITY IN SHIPBUILDING
Security and Defense May 29, 2026

CASH FLOW BECOMES PRIORITY IN SHIPBUILDING

Turkey is considering generating cash flow by exporting newly built naval platforms originally designed to meet domestic requirements. The first of 10 light corvette-class vessels planned for the Turkish Navy, the TCG Akhisar (P-1220), was sold straight to Romania without entering the Turkish inventory after its completion in December 2025. Ankara is now in talks to sell two newly built I-class (Istanbul/İstif-class) frigates to Indonesia.

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WAGE HIKES FAIL TO CURB DISCONTENT AT GROWING ECONOMIC STRAIN
Economy and Finance May 29, 2026

WAGE HIKES FAIL TO CURB DISCONTENT AT GROWING ECONOMIC STRAIN

With inflation at 30.89% annually and 0.89% month‑on‑month in December, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), the latest pension adjustments have ignited discontent among retirees. Most retired workers and tradespeople will receive only a 12.19% increase, while public servant retirees are slated for an 18.60% rise.

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SECURITY TALKS BETWEEN ISRAEL, GREECE, AND CYPRUS STOKE EAST MED TENSIONS
Foreign Affairs May 29, 2026

SECURITY TALKS BETWEEN ISRAEL, GREECE, AND CYPRUS STOKE EAST MED TENSIONS

The two consecutive meetings between the leaders of Cyprus’s Turkish and Greek communities, held after a five-year hiatus, generated cautious optimism about the prospects for renewed engagement. Yet this momentum is overshadowed by parallel efforts to consolidate trilateral cooperation among Israel, Greece, and Greek Cyprus.

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TOWARDS HYPER WAR CAPABILITY
Security and Defense May 29, 2026

TOWARDS HYPER WAR CAPABILITY

The Turkish Armed Forces has been testing joint operations capabilities after a rapid increase in the number of national defense industry products in its inventory, primarily electronic warfare and air defense systems, warships, and unmanned aerial vehicles. Baykar's AI-powered mini cruise missile Kemankeş-1 continues to undergo firing tests from the strategic-class Bayraktar Akıncı UCAV. “The Kemankeş smart munitions integration and testing activities carried out with the Akıncı strategic UAV platform, capable of flying at an altitude of 40,000 feet, provide serious indications of Turkey's hyper warfare capacity development,” Dr. Can Kasapoğlu, senior researcher at the Hudson Institute, said.

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MERZ: A CHANCELLOR IN SEARCH OF STABILITY
Guest Voices May 29, 2026

MERZ: A CHANCELLOR IN SEARCH OF STABILITY

Friedrich Merz’s visit to Ankara marks a new phase in German-Turkish relations — the trip served domestic power dynamics in Berlin in political terms rather than through concrete agreements. The chancellor did not come because Turkey has fundamentally changed, but because Germany finds itself in deep economic and political uncertainty. By Ozan Demircan

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