Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

TURKEY EASES ARMENIA TRADE EMBARGO AS PASHINYAN SEEKS MANDATE FOR REGIONAL PEACE PUSH
Foreign Affairs May 29, 2026

TURKEY EASES ARMENIA TRADE EMBARGO AS PASHINYAN SEEKS MANDATE FOR REGIONAL PEACE PUSH

One of the most concrete steps yet in the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia—launched in 2021—has been taken with a move toward direct trade between the two countries. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is heading into a June 7 election widely seen as a vote of confidence on his parallel agendas of steering the country toward the West while pursuing peace with Azerbaijan and normalization with Turkey. Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Öncü Keçeli announced on X on May 13 that bureaucratic preparations for the launch of direct trade between Turkey and Armenia had been completed as of May 11.

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ERDOĞAN FUELS HOPE ON PEACE PROCESS BUT STALEMATE CONTINUES WITHOUT ANY PROGRESS
Inside Turkey May 29, 2026

ERDOĞAN FUELS HOPE ON PEACE PROCESS BUT STALEMATE CONTINUES WITHOUT ANY PROGRESS

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has fueled hope for progress in the Kurdish process but his stance doesn’t amount to real movement, according to the DEM Party. Soon after dismissing claims of a deadlock in the "Terror-Free Turkey" process as "noise" at the April 23 reception, Erdoğan reiterated that the process is advancing as intended and urged all actors to act responsibly during a turbulent regional period.

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THE CHP'S MONTHS-LONG NIGHTMARE: THE "SPECTER OF ABSOLUTE NULLITY"
Deep Dive May 29, 2026

THE CHP'S MONTHS-LONG NIGHTMARE: THE "SPECTER OF ABSOLUTE NULLITY"

As the CHP’s criminal court case on its 2023 party congress nears, speculation that the former administration under Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu will replace the chairmanship of Özgür Özel has resurfaced. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s remarks fueled the flames, as did Kılıçdaroğlu’s snub of Özel at a funeral.

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TESTIMONIES TAKE CENTER STAGE IN IMAMOĞLU TRIAL
Deep Dive May 29, 2026

TESTIMONIES TAKE CENTER STAGE IN IMAMOĞLU TRIAL

On March 26, the 11th hearing in the trial of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and his co-defendants on corruption charges was concluded, with proceedings shifting away from procedural debates toward the substance of testimonies. Discussions centered on statements by defendants and individuals who later withdrew their testimonies after invoking the remorse provisions, reviving debate over the strength of the indictment.

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NEED FOR RULE OF LAW BECOMES MORE EVIDENT WITH THE START OF İMAMOĞLU TRIAL
Deep Dive May 29, 2026

NEED FOR RULE OF LAW BECOMES MORE EVIDENT WITH THE START OF İMAMOĞLU TRIAL

The trial of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu on corruption charges began on March 9, with the main defendant’s plans to challenge the legitimacy of the trial muzzled by the court and the media. After waiting nearly a year, İmamoğlu and 402 co-defendants — 107 of whom are under pre-trial detention — finally got their day in court. The hearings began with a confrontation between the court and İmamoğlu over his desire to make his case. He was allowed to deliver only a short statement on the second day and may have to wait at least until mid-April — in the best-case scenario — to present his full defense.

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AT A DEMOCRATIC THRESHOLD, MIXED JUDICIAL SIGNALS
Deep Dive May 29, 2026

AT A DEMOCRATIC THRESHOLD, MIXED JUDICIAL SIGNALS

In peril since the breakdown of the first Kurdish peace process in 2015, Turkish democracy is at a new threshold. On the one hand, the Parliament is expected to take up legislative measures to address the Kurdish problem and, on the other hand, the appointment of Akın Gürlek as the minister of justice suggests judicial suppression and anti-democratic measures are here to stay.

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SEARCH FOR A THIRD WAY WIDENS AMONG CONSERVATIVE AND RIGHT-WING PARTIES
Inside Turkey May 29, 2026

SEARCH FOR A THIRD WAY WIDENS AMONG CONSERVATIVE AND RIGHT-WING PARTIES

Efforts by conservative and right-wing parties to build a “third way” outside the ruling and main opposition blocs are gaining momentum, as Saadet Party and YRP — both rooted in Turkey’s first political Islamist tradition, the National View (Milli Görüş) shaped by Necmettin Erbakan — step up talks on election cooperation. The renewed contacts signal a shift in relations between the two parties, which had previously been at odds over the movement’s legacy following the founding of YRP in 2018. This time, the talks focus on bringing together Saadet Party, YRP, Gelecek Party and DEVA Party under a common framework, with a broader alliance that could also include the İYİ Party.

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CHP MAYORS FACE COURT AS WIDE-RANGING CORRUPTION TRIAL STARTS
Deep Dive May 29, 2026

CHP MAYORS FACE COURT AS WIDE-RANGING CORRUPTION TRIAL STARTS

Hearings have begun in a corruption probe involving municipalities run by the main opposition CHP, following investigations launched in March 2025. The case marks the first major trial stemming from the allegations, ahead of a separate prosecution involving Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu that is set to begin on March 9. The CHP’s legal strategy and the court’s approach to the defendants are expected to shape Turkey’s political agenda over the many years the trials are expected to take.

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CASH FLOW BECOMES PRIORITY IN SHIPBUILDING
Security and Defense May 29, 2026

CASH FLOW BECOMES PRIORITY IN SHIPBUILDING

Turkey is considering generating cash flow by exporting newly built naval platforms originally designed to meet domestic requirements. The first of 10 light corvette-class vessels planned for the Turkish Navy, the TCG Akhisar (P-1220), was sold straight to Romania without entering the Turkish inventory after its completion in December 2025. Ankara is now in talks to sell two newly built I-class (Istanbul/İstif-class) frigates to Indonesia.

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PARLIAMENT SETS MINIMUM PENSION AT 20,000 LIRA
Inside Turkey May 29, 2026

PARLIAMENT SETS MINIMUM PENSION AT 20,000 LIRA

Parliament approved legislation raising the minimum monthly pension to 20,000 lira ($460), an 18.4% increase, with effect from January. The bill, benefiting about 4.9 million retirees, was adopted by the Parliament with the support of the MHP lawmakers amid barbed debate.

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