Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
With the start of the new legislative year on Oct. 1, the main agenda will be the ongoing peace process concerning the Kurdish issue, which faces gridlock about the timing of demands over disarmament, legal guarantees, and the official status of jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan.
The “framework law” that will provide the legal basis for the PKK’s disarmament process appears set to be enacted after nearly five months of waiting. Öcalan’s view that “even if it is incomplete and inadequate, a step needs to be taken” proved instrumental in overcoming the disputes surrounding the law. In a sense, it was Öcalan who untied the knot.
Turkey’s Parliament witnessed a rare moment on Dec. 4 as a summary of notes from the recent meeting of three lawmakers with PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan was read aloud and recorded in the parliamentary minutes. In the summary, he was not referred to as “terrorist” despite the decades-long reputation shaped by the state, nor as a founding leader of the PKK, as MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli — the initiator of the recent process — had defined him.
Pervin Buldan, head of the DEM’s İmralı delegation, faced strong backlash after relaying PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s criticism of media rhetoric and voicing a proposed delegation visit to İmralı Island, Oct. 10.
The photos taken at the start of the new legislative year, in which President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan posed with chairs of opposition parties, including AKP breakaways, in the absence of the CHP, revealed the contest between the AKP and the CHP to win their support. After the images went viral, Erdoğan renewed his call for a new constitution more forcefully, while his ally, MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli, insisted that the parliamentary commission visit PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan in İmralı and urged Öcalan to call on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to lay down arms. The same day, slogans in Kurdish for Öcalan’s freedom — “Biji Serok Apo” — were chanted at the DEM Party’s group meeting. The party, which holds the third-largest number of seats in parliament, could significantly alter the political dynamics if it supports a constitutional change. While the photos of opposition figures with Erdoğan drew sharp criticism in the opposition media, concerned about alienating them, CHP Chair Özgür Özel personally called all opposition party chairs to ease the row.
The DEM Party is pushing the government to take legal steps to clarify PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s status, including the allocation of a house on İmralı Island, yet the government is buying time without providing clarity on the transition law.
The word of the week is “ihtiyatlı iyimserlik,” literally, “cautious optimism.” A staple of diplomatic jargon, the phrase allows diplomats, speechwriters, and strategists to sound hopeful without making any actual commitment. Last week alone, the term was trotted out as a reaction to the latest Damascus-SDF agreement, the ever-elusive prospect of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, and Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s pledge to establish an independent commission to bring those responsible for civilian killings in Latakia and Tartus to justice. And, yes, we are also cautiously optimistic about PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s calls to dissolve PKK and lay down arms, too.