Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Before me is the “LGBTQ+ Rights Monitoring Report” on the 2023 elections, prepared by University Queer Research and LGBT+ Solidarity Association (ÜniKuir) whose website was blocked as part of the “My Family Is Safe” operation.
As the countdown to early or on-schedule elections picks up pace, transfers of lawmakers and mayors are happening at an astonishing pace. Among them, Istanbul MP Nimet Özdemir stands out. Özdemir won her parliamentary seat for the first time in 2023 — under the İYİ Party banner.
Since the court voided the CHP's 2023 party congress, the main opposition has been unable to untangle the knot — and each new court decision pulls it tighter. The question is whether the party can hold an extraordinary congress to break the deadlock. But the forces shaping what comes next run deeper: when and how the CHP headquarters under Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, 77, will move to press disciplinary charges, expelling some figures; whether the parliamentary immunity of ousted chair Özgür Özel, 51, and his allies — implicated by recent testimonies from Antalya and Uşak — will be lifted; and when a new party will be established.
Turkey's oldest and main opposition party, the CHP, is now effectively divided in two after a court annulled the party's November 2023 congress and reinstated former chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in place of Özgür Özel. The split became more visible when both camps held rallies simultaneously at 2 p.m. on May 30. Kılıçdaroğlu returned to party headquarters to chants of 'Kılıçdaroğlu, the people's hope' — a stark reversal from just days earlier, when another crowd had branded him a 'traitor' and 'the AKP's hope' on May 24, reacting to the court-ordered change in the party leadership carried out with police support. The first head-to-head show of strength between the two camps laid bare a simple reality: Özel commands greater grassroots support, but Kılıçdaroğlu holds the formal authority to run the party.
As the CHP’s criminal court case on its 2023 party congress nears, speculation that the former administration under Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu will replace the chairmanship of Özgür Özel has resurfaced. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s remarks fueled the flames, as did Kılıçdaroğlu’s snub of Özel at a funeral.
The brief respite after a court rejected a bid to unseat main opposition CHP Chair Özgür Özel and annul the party’s 2023 congress has now given way to a widening espionage probe. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and his campaign director Necati Özkan were rearrested on espionage charges, while a trustee was appointed to TELE1 television channel and its editor-in-chief, Merdan Yanardağ, was also taken into custody on Oct. 24.
The CHP has received a brief reprieve from ongoing legal turmoil as a lawsuit seeking to annul its 38th Ordinary Congress—held on November 4–5, 2023—was postponed to Oct. 24. The delay offers the party a short breathing space. Now it is preparing for a new extraordinary congress on Sept. 21 that might address some of the legal challenges it faces. But the crackdown against CHP municipalities is pressing on. In the latest development, Bayrampaşa Mayor Hasan Mutlu became the 12th CHP mayor arrested in Istanbul—and the 18th nationwide—since the crackdown began in October 2024.
Is cooperation among nationalist parties possible? What are the prospects and obstacles? Turkish politics has been polarized into two main blocs since the transition to the presidential system: the AKP on one side and the CHP on the other. While the AKP kept parties like the MHP, BBP, and HÜDA-Par in its orbit, the CHP advanced by forging open or tacit alliances with the DEM Party and İYİ Party. But this opposition front collapsed after the defeat in the 2023 elections.
A lawsuit seeking to annul the results of the CHP’s 2023 congress—based on allegations that delegates were bribed—has triggered a renewed power struggle between current Chair Özgür Özel and his predecessor, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
A fresh blow has landed on the CHP as a court annulled the party's 2023 congress — the elective gathering at which the party leadership, including its chair, changed hands following an election defeat — ordering the party's administration to revert to its pre-congress configuration.
Let us say it plainly at the outset: the answer is no. This is bigger than his wishes or reluctance. For more than a year, based on the operations against CHP municipalities, there has been a slew of analyses claiming that 'Erdoğan will not hold elections'. Similar analyses — citing earthquakes and wars as justification for him avoiding elections — also proved wrong before the 2023 elections and before.
Power cuts during a winter cold snap have disrupted life in Hatay, a province still recovering from the twin earthquakes of February 2023.