Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Before me is the “LGBTQ+ Rights Monitoring Report” on the 2023 elections, prepared by University Queer Research and LGBT+ Solidarity Association (ÜniKuir) whose website was blocked as part of the “My Family Is Safe” operation.
Is cooperation among nationalist parties possible? What are the prospects and obstacles? Turkish politics has been polarized into two main blocs since the transition to the presidential system: the AKP on one side and the CHP on the other. While the AKP kept parties like the MHP, BBP, and HÜDA-Par in its orbit, the CHP advanced by forging open or tacit alliances with the DEM Party and İYİ Party. But this opposition front collapsed after the defeat in the 2023 elections.
Let us say it plainly at the outset: the answer is no. This is bigger than his wishes or reluctance. For more than a year, based on the operations against CHP municipalities, there has been a slew of analyses claiming that 'Erdoğan will not hold elections'. Similar analyses — citing earthquakes and wars as justification for him avoiding elections — also proved wrong before the 2023 elections and before.
The new civil constitution that the AKP has been calling for since the 2023 elections is set to become one of the key issues in the new year. Revising the presidential system, addressing the needs of a new peace process, and — inevitably — paving the way for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s renewed candidacy are the main pillars of this process. But any such changes would first require consensus within the party, and then support from the opposition.
In 2020, the CHP held a “Power Congress” under Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s leadership; five years later, the party is heading into another congress — this time under the leadership of Özgür Özel and with the slogan “Now Is the Time for Power.” After that congress, held with the claim that the party was on its way to power, Kılıçdaroğlu, now 76, not only lost the 2023 elections but also the CHP chairmanship. Now Özel, in only his third year as a chair at 51, is convening a congress with his own claim to power.
The arithmetic in the Turkish Parliament is shifting rapidly, as party defections mount. Since the May 2023 elections, 35 lawmakers have resigned from their parties, significantly altering the composition of parliament. The İYİ Party has shrunk from 43 to 29 MPs; DEVA has dropped from 15 to 9; and Gelecek from 10 to 4. Of the defectors, 11 joined the AKP and 10 moved to the CHP. Fourteen now sit as independents.
Naci Bostancı is an academic—political scientist, sociologist, and communications scholar. He currently serves as the rector of Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University. But that’s not the whole story. For many years, he was a member of parliament, holding senior roles within the ruling AKP. At one point, he even occupied the position of second-in-command after President Erdoğan within the party hierarchy. In the 2023 elections, he chose not to run again and returned to academia.