Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Former Treasury Undersecretary and prominent economist Mahfi Eğilmez calculated that the fair value of the US dollar should be 65 liras based on the Big Mac Index, far above the market exchange rate of 47.50 liras and warned that the holding the exchange rate below its fair value inflates the country's GDP and per capita income figures on paper without making Turks any richer.
The Turkish economy grew by 2.5% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year, lower than the 2.7% growth expected by economists. TurkStat data showed that quarter-on-quarter GDP growth remained at 0.1%. Household consumption made the largest contribution to growth with 3.4 percentage points. However, industrial production contracted. Also, the negative contribution of net foreign trade expanded.
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz unveiled the Medium-Term Program for 2026–28, raising the end-2025 inflation target by 11 points from the previous plan. Yılmaz said real GDP growth targets are 3.8% in 2026, 4.3% in 202, and 5.0% in 2028. The inflation path is 28.5% for end-2025, 16% for end-2026, 9% for 2027, and 8% for 2028.