Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Annual consumer inflation in Turkey remained above 30% for the 57th consecutive month in August. Official figures from TurkStat put August inflation at 31.5%, slightly slower than 31.75% in July.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres' July 27-29 visit to Cyprus produced no concrete resolution plan or new timetable. Ankara welcomed efforts with caution and Deputy Foreign Minister Mehmet Kemal Bozay headed to Northern Cyprus after the talks.
António Guterres will arrive in Cyprus at the end of July, carrying another possibility of peace to an island familiar with such visits. Cyprus diplomacy sometimes resembles Buñuel’s The Discreet Charm of the Bourgeoisie. The guests assemble, the table is laid, and dinner is indefinitely postponed.
The central bank kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 37% during its Monetary Policy Committee meeting on July 23, matching market expectations. However, business leaders are increasingly complaining about high borrowing costs, tight credit restrictions, and falling industrial output.
Özgür Özel, ousted as CHP chair by a court ruling, is preparing to set up a new party even as legal threats mount against him and his allies. The party is likely to be called Yeni Party (New Party), Özel said. 'We are working on the name and the logo. The name has started to become clear. There is a generally accepted name, while the logo is still being worked on. For now, let's call it 'Yeni Party.' Until there is a new name, let's say Yeni Party,' Özel told SZC TV. 'The statute and the program are being written. The official step will be taken at the end of July or the beginning of August,' Özel told the channel at parliament ahead of a special session marking the 10th anniversary of the failed coup attempt.
The DEM Party is intensifying pressure on the AKP/MHP ruling alliance to pass the framework law underpinning Turkey's Kurdish peace process before parliament enters for its summer recess — even as the party struggles to extract details of the draft from the AKP. The push has produced a flurry of contacts. İmralı Delegation members Pervin Buldan and Mithat Sancar, together with Faik Özgür Erol, met AKP Deputy Chair Efkan Ala and AKP Group Chair Abdullah Güler on July 15, and MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli at his office in parliament the following day. Asked about the talks, Buldan declined to elaborate: 'We will not give information on the content.'
Turkish Trade Minister Ömer Bolat led a high-stakes diplomatic mission in Brussels on July 16-17 to secure Turkey's inclusion in the European Union’s upcoming 'Made in Europe' framework.
Most market participants expect the central bank to keep the policy rate unchanged at 37% when it meets on July 23, but pressure is building for a cut and some experts are calling for a wholesale shift in monetary policy.
NATO Allies announced on July 7 that over $40 billion will be invested in counter-drone capabilities over the next five years.
Ten years after tanks rolled onto the Bosphorus Bridge and F-16s bombed parliament, Turkey marks the anniversary of the failed July 15 coup attempt with a holiday named 'Democracy and National Unity Day' — in a country more polarized, less democratic and no closer to answering the fundamental questions of that night than it was a decade ago.
The four-month-long first session of the Istanbul Municipality trial ended on July 8 without the testimony of its main defendant: Ekrem İmamoğlu, the jailed Istanbul mayor and ousted CHP administration's presidential candidate, who is accused of being the leader of an alleged criminal organization.
Turkey's political agenda is expected to pivot sharply from diplomacy to domestic maneuvering as post-NATO scenarios dominate the discussion from July 9 onward. The conclusion of the NATO Ankara Summit, widely seen as an international success for Turkey and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan personally, has triggered intense political speculation amid increasing pressure on dissidents.