Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
The first concrete step has been taken in the PKK's disarmament process, a subject Turkey has been discussing for nearly 22 months. The law that will form the legal groundwork for the group's disarmament passed parliament with what has been called a 'historic consensus.' Next comes implementation. But the real question is will this process, dubbed 'Terror-Free Turkey,' contribute to the country's democratization?
The peace process, dubbed the Terror-Free Turkey, now awaits the 'framework law,' expected to be submitted before parliament goes into its summer recess. There appears to be no consensus, however, on the bill's exact timing, scope and the conditions on the ground. While the process remains in the waiting room, the Interior Ministry took a concrete step, lifting thousands of search points and checkpoints in the terror-affected region. The pro-Kurdish DEM Party, through all its spokespeople, is asking 'what the law is waiting for.' But reading between the lines of AKP and DEM Party statements reveals disagreements at the draft stage.
The central bank kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 37% for the third consecutive meeting on June 11, matching the consensus forecast of economists. The Monetary Policy Committee also held its overnight lending rate at 40% and its borrowing rate at 35.5%. The central bank last altered its policy rate in January with a 100-basis-point cut.
Following the consensus between Syria’s interim government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), momentum has returned to Turkey’s long-running efforts to end the decades-long armed conflict and address the Kurdish question through political and legal channels. This renewed dynamic has also pushed the “right to hope” for PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan back to the center of the political agenda.
The parliamentary commission tasked with advancing the new peace process between the PKK and Turkey is heading toward a landmark meeting on Nov. 21, when it is expected to decide whether to visit Abdullah Öcalan on İmralı Island, where he has been serving a life sentence since 1999. Although the outcome in the 51-member body initially appeared certain — with the AKP, MHP, DEM, TİP and EMEP signaling support for the visit — shifting political dynamics have pushed discussions toward avoiding a formal vote altogether, according to last-minute reports ahead of the meeting. The move is seen as a way to ease pressure on parties — particularly the AKP and CHP, both facing internal sensitivities — even though initial reports had suggested the commission would hold a vote on whether to visit Öcalan.
The new legislative year of the Turkish Parliament opened without the CHP, which boycotted the session in protest at President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the ongoing crackdown—starting debate over parliamentary legitimacy. Erdoğan swiftly countered the criticism, declaring that “legitimacy comes from the people.” He followed his remarks with a symbolic gesture: shaking hands with all parliamentary group leaders, including first-time photo-ops after many years with the heads of AKP offshoots DEVA and the Gelecek Party. Notably, Erdoğan coolly used his address to tell the pro-Kurdish DEM Party that the next phase on the Kurdish issue will be implementation. Praising the work of the National Solidarity, Brotherhood and Democracy Commission for holding 12 meetings so far with broad participation from political parties, Erdoğan said, “Once the commission completes its work, we will undoubtedly have very important findings in hand. The next phase will be the implementation of the proposals raised within the commission, as a result of consultation and consensus.”
Turkey’s newly formed National Solidarity, Brotherhood and Democracy Commission—tasked with preparing the framework for the PKK’s disarmament—has held its first meeting thanks to a rare cross-party consensus in parliament. The eight-hour session marked a symbolic start to what could become a historic process.
The new civil constitution that the AKP has been calling for since the 2023 elections is set to become one of the key issues in the new year. Revising the presidential system, addressing the needs of a new peace process, and — inevitably — paving the way for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s renewed candidacy are the main pillars of this process. But any such changes would first require consensus within the party, and then support from the opposition.
Turkey and Syria have reached consensus on 10 new agreements with a target of $5 billion in trade.
The possibility the trial of imprisoned Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu could be televised by state broadcaster TRT has sparked rare agreement among political rivals. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan endorsed MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli’s call for the hearings to be aired live. Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunç also weighed in, saying that Parliament can act on the matter if there is consensus.