Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
The expected has happened. The “new peace process,” now more than a year old, has fallen under the shadow of Syria. Map-altering clashes between the new Damascus government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), whose backbone is formed by Kurds, have driven a wedge between the AKP-MHP ruling bloc and the DEM Party in Turkey.
The two consecutive meetings between the leaders of Cyprus’s Turkish and Greek communities, held after a five-year hiatus, generated cautious optimism about the prospects for renewed engagement. Yet this momentum is overshadowed by parallel efforts to consolidate trilateral cooperation among Israel, Greece, and Greek Cyprus.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan paid a one-day official visit to Italy on April 29. He was received in Rome with pomp by his counterpart Sergio Matarella as well as Prime Minister Georgia Meloni. This was a visit of niceties on each side. To Erdoğan’s satisfaction, the Italians did not raise any political issues, especially those pertaining to his iron fist authoritarian rule and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoglu’s arrest.
Ankara is often described by those who do not know it well as a grey city. This is unfair, though not entirely mysterious. A city that must constantly perform seriousness is rarely forgiven for having charm. Yet Ankara’s charm is real. It is private, reveals itself slowly, and almost always just outside the official frame. It is a city of dry light, hard hills, old stones, republican geometry, Ottoman shadows, Roman fragments, Seljuk craft and streets that remember more than they are prepared to explain. This is why Ankara deserves a cultural diplomacy route, a way of showing visitors not only what the city proudly displays, but also what it half-remembers, neglects, misnames, hides or leaves to survive behind other buildings.
The possibility of a court ruling that might replace the CHP administration continues to overshadow the party’s campaign efforts to force the government into early elections.
Following the PKK’s decision to lay down arms, the newly launched “peace process” has become tangled up in tensions over Syria. The military operation by the Damascus regime that pushed the SDF/YPG out of two Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo has strained relations between the AKP–MHP alliance and the DEM Party, ending a cautious rapprochement as part of the process. It has also disrupted a positive atmosphere that had lasted for nearly a year, raising fresh doubts about the prospects of success.
The CHP has unveiled its new shadow cabinet, touting it as the team that would govern Turkey if elected. However, the lineup has sparked backlash from left-wing critics over the dominance of business figures and center-right politicians occupying key posts. Despite advocating a return to the parliamentary system — where the executive is known as the Council of Ministers and members are elected, not appointed — the CHP has mirrored the presidential model by labeling its team a “cabinet” and appointing shadow cabinet members who are business figures active in the very sectors they oversee.
Ukrainian naval drones struck two ships alleged to be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Black Sea off the Turkish coast, increasing tension in the shared sea even as the combatants pursue renewed peace talks. The Sea Baby drones hit the oil tankers MT Kairos and MT Virat on Nov. 28. Russia has used hundreds of tankers known as the “shadow fleet” to evade Western sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine, delivering millions of barrels of oil to buyers in breach of those restrictions.
DEM Party Deputy Parliamentary Group Chair Gülistan Kılıç Koçyiğit has renewed her party’s call for the National Solidarity, Brotherhood and Democracy Commission to visit imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan on İmralı Island.
The United States has imposed sanctions on 22 entities linked to a shadow banking network accused of facilitating illicit oil trade on behalf of the Iranian regime. The network operates through front companies based in Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Hong Kong, funneling revenue to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF), the U.S. State Department announced on July 9.
The United States has imposed sanctions on 22 entities linked to a shadow banking network accused of facilitating illicit oil trade on behalf of the Iranian regime. The network operates through front companies based in Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Hong Kong, funneling revenue to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF), the U.S. State Department announced on July 9.
In Turkish, ağır abi, literally “heavy-weight bro”—is not your run-of-the-mill elder sibling. He is a stoic, charismatic figure who commands respect with the mere arch of an eyebrow. He doesn’t talk much; he doesn’t need to. His presence alone does the heavy lifting. And if anyone currently embodies the essence of an ağır abi, it’s Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s inscrutable foreign minister. Fidan, poker-faced and perpetually unruffled, has become the leading man in Turkey’s diplomatic theater, even overshadowing the usual stars, such as President Erdoğan and the minister of defense. He seized center stage after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, stepping up to the podium in Doha with all the composure of a man placing bets in a high-stakes poker game. His words called for an inclusive transition in Syria: “The new administration must be established in an orderly manner. There must never be a desire for revenge. It is time to unite and reconstruct the country.”