By Cengiz K. Firat
The Caucasus is undergoing a fundamental transformation that could reshape the region’s geopolitical landscape. After decades of failed attempts—such as the 2001 peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan or the 2009 Armenia–Turkey Zurich Protocols—Armenia and Azerbaijan have now initialed agreements that could pave the way for a historic breakthrough.
What makes this moment different is that Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Armenia all appear to be aligned and even welcome U.S. involvement. In a region where Russian mediation has been the default for decades, this is a striking change—especially as Moscow’s presence has yielded no lasting results for any of the parties.
Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, bleeding resources and attention. Iran, meanwhile, has been pushed back across the Middle East—in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria (Assad regime), Gaza (Hamas), and Yemen (Houthis)—and has even been hit hard at home. This has created the space for the United States to expand its footprint in the Caucasus, and we are now watching that shift play out in real time.
FINE PRINT STILL MATTERS
For now, these agreements have only been initialed, not signed. The details—especially the fine print—and their implementation will need careful monitoring. In the Caucasus, political sands shift quickly, and reversals are common.
A major sticking point is Azerbaijan’s demand that Armenia remove constitutional and legal claims to Azerbaijani territory before finalizing any deal. For Baku, this is non-negotiable, and until it is resolved, a full peace remains uncertain.
SHIFTING ALLIANCES RESHAPE THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
Neither Russia nor Iran will stand idly by while the U.S. gains influence in the South Caucasus at their expense. Both have long traditions of safeguarding strategic interests and are likely to respond—probably in ways that complicate the process. Yet the reality is that structural changes are underway and will eventually draw in Georgia as well.
Baku has made its choice. It has aligned firmly with Turkey—and by extension with Pakistan and Qatar—while deepening cooperation with Israel. Now, it is bringing the U.S. into the equation. Once Washington lifts sanctions on Azerbaijan, its break from the Russian sphere of influence will be complete.
For Armenia, this is no less dramatic. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his government have effectively abandoned reliance on Russian protection, concluding it offers neither results nor security. Encouraged by Western advice, Yerevan is moving toward peace with Azerbaijan in the hope this will lead to normalization with Turkey and open the way to economic growth, energy integration, and transport connectivity.
It is a bold political gamble. Domestically, Pashinyan risks a fierce backlash from the Armenian diaspora, one of the strongest opponents of any peace deal with Azerbaijan. The fact that these agreements were initialed in Washington is likely to have sent shockwaves through diaspora communities.
WINNERS, LOSERS AND GLOBAL CONTEXT
If these agreements succeed, they will serve as a win for Turkey’s Middle Corridor strategy, linking Europe, the Balkans, Turkey, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and ultimately China. Over time, even Armenia could be drawn into this network of stability and interconnectivity—a vision that would have been unthinkable just a decade ago.
This development also fits into a broader global context. The U.S. is actively pushing back against China’s Belt and Road Initiative, moving eastward to establish new economic and strategic corridors. This global geopolitical game is unfolding in real time, with alliances shifting and new fault lines emerging. China will take note and recalibrate its approach—but in the short term, the momentum is not in Beijing’s favor. A looming confrontation between these powers is on the horizon—that’s a story for another day.
The losers in this scenario are clear: Russia, Iran, and much of the Armenian diaspora. The winners—if peace holds—will be the peoples and economies of the Caucasus, and the broader network of states benefiting from new trade, energy, and transport links.
A NARROW WINDOW FOR SUCCESS
The initialing of the agreements is only the first step; their signing, ratification, and faithful implementation will be the true test. Azerbaijan’s preconditions, Armenia’s internal divides, and external pressures from Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing could still derail the process.
Both Russia and Iran are unlikely to respond passively. Their state traditions favor countermeasures when influence is threatened. Yet both must recognize that the Caucasus is changing in ways that cannot be reversed—and that the new alignment will sooner or later involve Georgia, completing a regional transformation.
For the first time in decades, Armenia and Azerbaijan are pursuing a peace track with real potential. Azerbaijan is consolidating its position alongside Turkey, expanding partnerships, and breaking from the Russian orbit. Armenia is daring to imagine peace with its neighbor and the benefits of open borders, trade, and connectivity.
If this path continues unhindered, the rewards will be shared widely—except by Russia, Iran, and parts of the Armenian diaspora. The rest of the region could see a new era of cooperation, economic opportunity, and stability.
For Turkey, the payoff could be particularly significant: a connected Middle Corridor stretching from Europe to China, with the Caucasus as a stable bridge rather than a fault line. It is a vision worth pursuing—and one that, for now, feels closer than ever.
