By Barçın Yinanc
Among the many challenges Turkey will face in Syria three stand out.
The first stems from the Arab countries. The “Arab streets” are happy to see the end of the suffering of Syrian Arabs at the hands of a dictator. Yet this joy is hardly shared by their rulers. The survival of the Assad regime symbolized the failure of the Arab uprisings of 2011 as Arab leaders feared the movement of political Islam could hit home to challenge their rule.
To see the toppling of an established dynasty by local opposition forces could inspire others in the Arab world, reviving the nightmare scenarios of the Arab rulers, whose legitimacy became even more fragile due to their inaction against Israel in the Gaza war.
In that respect, the euphoric attitude of the Islamist circles in Turkey was not helpful. The fact that Yasin Aktay, a prominent AKP figure, went to speak to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, accompanied by a member of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, did not go unnoticed by Cairo.
Turkey’s support to the Muslim Brotherhood during the Arab Spring ended with the deterioration of relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. In fact, UAE and Saudi Arabia agreed to normalize relations with Ankara only after being convinced that political Islam is defeated and the Muslim Brotherhood no longer poses a threat to their rule.
ALLEVIATING FEARS
As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan traveled to Egypt to attend the meeting of D8 countries in Cairo, one of his missions was to alleviate the fears of Arab governments, since they could potentially disrupt a peaceful transition of power in Syria.
Erdoğan also has to neutralize the “neo-Ottoman imperialistic” messages coming out of both Ankara and Damascus.
Trying to seduce Turkish public opinion, Erdoğan implied that Homs, Hama, and Aleppo could have been Turkish provinces had WW1 ended differently.
The fact that the head of Turkish intelligence, İbrahim Kalın, went to Damascus and prayed in one of the most important mosques for the Islamic world must have revived Arab countries’ historic allergy to Turkey. Having spent three centuries under Ottoman rule, Arab countries do not want a non-Arab power such as Turkey to play a role in the Arab world.
Kalın was seen in a car that was driven by the HTS leader, signaling the proximity of Ankara to an Islamist movement that is currently the leading actor in Syria’s future.
In addition, the visit of Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim to Ankara on Dec. 18 must have served to revive the bitter memories of the Turkey-Qatar axis at the beginning of the Arab spring.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan tried to alleviate these fears by talking to the Arab press. He underlined the message that the regime in Damascus did not fall because of Turkish support for HTS and tried to put some distance between Ankara and the Islamist group which used to be linked to Al Qaeda as well as ISIL.
WILL HTS KEEP ITS PROMISES?
This brings us to Turkey’s second challenge: whether HTS will fulfill its promises to lead the country to inclusive government respectful of different ethnic and religious groups.
HTS needs to give moderate messages to the outside world to be accepted as a legitimate interlocutor to receive the financial assistance from both the Western world as well as the Gulf states that is needed to put the country back on its feet.
European countries appear the most enthusiastic to “invest” in the new chapter in Syria. It was definitely surprising to see the European Commission act fast and, only four days after Assad’s departure, launch an air bridge to deliver emergency health care and essential supplies.
European capitals, including London, Berlin, Paris and Rome, among others were quick to send envoys to Damascus.
This might not be surprising since many in Europe are led by governments that are losing votes to far-right movements because of migration issues.
Some kind of normalcy that would encourage the return of Syrian refugees can reduce the pressure on these governments. Germany will go to the polls in February.
But if the HTS were to fail in fulfilling its promises, not only would Turkey be held accountable, but a renewed armed conflict among different groups in Syria would disrupt the international aid to the country. Encouraged by Western capitals to play a role, if Ankara were to shoulder more than it could handle, the country could become bogged down deeper in the Syrian ordeal.
RISKS ON THE GROUND
Finally, another challenge remains: the U.S.-YPG cooperation in Syria.
The situation was highly volatile on the ground as U.S. military forces made their presence felt, while Washington tried to secure a ceasefire between the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army and the YPG, seen as by Turkey as PKK’s wing in Syria.
While Fidan asked the PKK leadership to cede the ground to local Kurdish groups, YPG appeared to flirt with HTS, by sending positive messages to Damascus. No doubt, Turkey sees an opportunity to push back the PKK. But potential clashes and unwanted accidents involving U.S. troops carry the risk of angering Donald Trump from the very beginning of his second stint.
As such, Turkey is faced with a dilemma of acting during the transition period in Washington or buying time until Trump comes into office, trusting that Erdoğan can convince Trump to be supportive of Turkey’s stance.
