By Barçın Yinanç
The most important foreign policy development of this week was incontestably U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria during his visit to Saudi Arabia.
Ever since the fall of the Assad regime on Dec. 8, Ankara has lobbied for the lifting of the sanctions. Trump mentioned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan alongside Saudi Arabia's leader while he revealed his decision. In addition, Erdoğan's phone participation in the meeting between Trump and Syrian leader Ahmet Al-Sharaa in Riyadh was an important gesture to polish the Turkish president's international reputation.
By asking Al-Sharaa to assume responsibility for ISIS detention centres in north-east Syria, Trump appears to have accepted another proposal voiced by Turkey. U.S. administrations have been supporting the YPG, arguing that the armed group, seen by Ankara as the PKK’s Syrian wing, is fighting ISIS and keeps control of the camps where ISIS terrorists and family members are held. Turkey has objected, claiming the Syrian government can fight ISIS and keep control of the camps.
As a result, Trump has transferred all responsibility for Syria to Turkey. Ankara will become the de facto guarantor of Ahmad Al-Sharaa, assuming accountability for whatever Syria’s interim ruler will do.
By doing exactly the opposite of demands from Israel, which lobbied against lifting the sanctions to keep Syria weak, Trump might have sent a message reflecting his displeasure about Binyamin Netanyahu’s uncompromising policy on the war in Gaza.
Trump has also asked Al-Sharaa to sign onto the Abraham Accords with Israel and deport “Palestinian terrorists,” according to the White House.
BLACK CAT IN THE TALKS
U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with their Syrian counterpart on May 15 in Antalya, and no doubt their talks included the negotiations between Damascus and the YPG.
In exchange for accepting Turkey’s demand to legitimize and support Syria’s new rulers, Washington might as well push Turkey to accept the YPG as a legitimate interlocutor in Syria.
On May 12, the PKK announced it was laying down its arms and disbanding. Joint mechanisms will be formed with regional countries to monitor the handover of weapons, according to press reports. On March 10, the YPG signed a deal to integrate all military and civilian institutions into the Syrian state.
Ever since Dec. 8, Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan has called on the non-Syrian members of the YPG to leave Syria while underlining the importance of the political unity of Syria for Turkey.
The talks on the status of YPG are therefore crucial both for the so-called “Turkey with no terror” process as well as future stability of Syria, which will no doubt involve the U.S. as well as Israel.
For the sceptics of the “terror-free Turkey” process who suspect its real aim is to secure another presidential term for Erdoğan, one of the intentions behind Trump’s move on Syria can be seen as legitimization of the YPG, which until recently was seen as the PKK.
NEGOTIATION ENIGMA IN ISTANBUL
In a parallel development, Erdoğan is set to further gain Trump’s appreciation as he tries hard to push Ukraine and Russia to start direct negotiations.
According to a retired Turkish diplomat, Russian leader Vladimir Putin has made a tactical mistake by calling on May 11 to start direct negotiations in Istanbul on May 15, although he never hinted that the talks should be at the leaders' level. Encouraged by Trump, the Ukrainian leader said he would come to Turkey.
“As Trump is in the region, Putin should have expected Trump to jump on his proposal and offer to come to Turkey. He made a miscalculation,” said the former Turkish diplomat familiar with the war in Ukraine.
To put pressure on Putin, Trump said as late as May 14 that he could come to Istanbul. But by late May 14, it became clear the Russian leader would not show up.
On May 15, although the two countries' delegations arrived in Istanbul, it was not clear by the time of the writing whether they would meet.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with the Turkish president in Ankara on May 15 and criticized Russia for being disrespectful of Turkey and the U.S. Putin’s absence gave Zelenskyy another occasion to portray Russia as the aggressor unwilling to reach a peaceful solution.
Putin has put Trump, who is already frustrated by the Russian leader, in a difficult position. Supplying arms to Ukraine and introducing additional sanctions are seen as the only options to further pressure Putin for at least a ceasefire. The EU and the U.S. are said to have previously agreed on an additional set of sanctions. But Trump is unwilling to take that course, as this would mean coming back to his predecessor Biden’s position, which he fiercely criticized during the election campaign. The fact that Turkish diplomacy tried hard to get the two sides together at least on a technical level will certainly be appreciated by Trump.
