By Barçın Yinanç
“The European Union will open its vast economy to countries waiting to join its ranks, provided they agree to stand with the bloc against hostile states and industrial rivals, according to a draft European Commission proposal obtained by POLITICO.”
Politico’s scoop is yet another piece of bad news for Turkish-EU relations. Under the plan prepared by von der Leyen’s advisor Alexandre Adam — a former aide to French President Emmanuel Macron — economic benefits offered to candidate countries will depend on their support for the EU's foreign policy objectives, with single market access hinging on them not sharing key technologies with hostile states and trade rivals.
This does not bode well for Turkish-EU relations, argues Sinan Ülgen, a prominent expert, defining the new conditionality as a “challenging proposition for Ankara to address.” If the modernization of the customs union is conditioned on support for the EU's foreign policy objectives, this will make it more complicated for Turkey to clear the bar, he wrote on his social media account.
As I previously wrote, the EU’s “Made in Europe” initiative risks striking a serious blow to Turkey’s relations with the 27-nation bloc. Turkey’s automotive industry is extremely anxious and some foreign investors define the problem as existential.
While in New York for the UN General Assembly, Jim Baumbick, the head of Ford Europe, asked President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for his help, according to journalist Vahap Munyar.
“As the private sector, we do everything we can so that Turkey is not excluded from the Made in Europe initiative,” said Baumbick, adding that Ford, together with Koç Holding, is one of the leading groups invested in the automotive sector.
“There is a limit to what we can do as the private sector. We are expecting you to directly intervene,” he said.
Ironically, the draft plan is aimed at encouraging candidates such as North Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Turkey, due to “fears growing that they will become disengaged or gravitate closer to Russia or China,” according to Politico.
BACKFIRE RISK
In the case of Turkey, this might have the opposite effect.
There is talk in Ankara that if Turkey’s concerns are not alleviated, it could retaliate, especially in view of the fact that non-EU countries such as Norway and the UK succeed in remaining within the “Made in Europe” initiative.
This will not only shake the fundamentals of Turkey’s relations with Europe, but it will further push the country towards Russia and China.
CAN RUSSIA AND CHINA BE A TRUMP CARD?
It would be wrong, however, for Turkish decision-makers to assume that alternatives such as Russia and China can fill in the gap.
Turkey’s ability to forge mutually beneficial relations with major powers such as Russia and China is strengthened, rather than diminished, by maintaining strong relations with Europe. Indeed, if Turkey were to seek alternatives in response to a crisis with the EU, it could weaken its bargaining position in relations with other major powers.
No doubt, as the war rages on in Ukraine, Russia needs Turkey. It will be relatively easier to lure Russia into more cooperation, although Moscow will certainly try to maximize its benefits, knowing how urgent Ankara’s search for alternatives becomes in case of a potential trade crisis with the EU.
Comparatively, China has less incentive to pursue a rapprochement with Turkey, although it could nevertheless seek to benefit from the situation. As access to European markets becomes more difficult for Chinese goods, China has an increasing interest in developing alternative buyers for its products. But political relations are lukewarm.
Look at the level of the state visits.
President Erdoğan paid a state visit to China in 2015, the same year Xi Jinping came to Antalya for the G20 summit.
In 2019, Xi Jinping made a state visit to Greece. He visited Hungary and Serbia in 2024, which means he was in the neighborhood. Just last month, he made a three-day official visit to Egypt.
The Uighur problem remains an important headache. Diplomatic sources say Ankara avoids irritating Chinese authorities on this issue but also has expectations that cannot be satisfied.
Economic cooperation has not been smooth either.
China’s plans to invest in Turkey’s electric-vehicle sector have not materialized as initially expected (see The Third Desk this week for more). Chinese company BYD has put its planned $1 billion Turkey factory in Manisa on hold indefinitely and is prioritizing Hungary instead, leaving a bitter taste in Ankara.
