By Barçın Yinanç
When a European expert based in Bulgaria received an invitation to a conference in Tbilisi, he decided to take the maritime route, boarding the ferry from Burgaz to Batumi.
At one stage of the 64-hour crossing, while sailing in the open sea, the ferry shut its transponder and turned off its lights. A Russian fuel tanker approached and docked with the ferry to provide fuel to the ship, which is mainly used by trucks. The expert later found out that Russia sold the fuel 30 to 40 percent less than the market price. The captain of the ferry confessed he had all the official documents proving that the fuel was purchased from Romania.
When the U.S. president complained about some NATO countries continuing to purchase oil and natural gas from Russia, many pointed the finger at Turkey, as it is the only NATO country that continues to openly import oil and gas from Russia.
Whether Trump also had in mind the shadowy traffic involving other NATO countries cannot be known.
TERRIFIED BY RUSSIA
Currently, European countries are less concerned about the potential evasion of sanctions but are preoccupied by the Russian invasion of European airspace.
Actually, preoccupy is an understatement; the correct term could be “terrified.”
The use of a million-dollar missile from a 5th-generation warplane to try to shut down a handful of drones whose price tag ranges between 1,000 to 15,000 dollars does not appear to be a smart defense strategy.
ALARM BELLS
Meanwhile, as Poland and Baltic states appear more successful in ringing the alarm bells about the Russian threat in the Baltic Sea, the violation of Romanian airspace by a suspected Russian drone has helped turn the attention to the Black Sea.
Romania and Bulgaria feel vulnerable and prefer more NATO presence. Traditionally, they also prefer more U.S. presence, although their trust level in America must be shaken by U.S. President Donald Trump's ambivalent position when it comes to defending allies.
Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base, commonly known as 'MK' and located near Constanța, hosts a significant and growing permanent U.S. military presence. In 2018, the base covered approximately 626 hectares, but by 2022, it had expanded to around 2,856 hectares. With a planned investment of €2.5 billion, MK is set to become NATO’s largest base in Europe by 2040.
While both Bulgaria and Romania would have preferred a bigger U.S./NATO naval presence in the Black Sea, as the guardian of the Montreux Convention, Turkey stands in the way of a bigger Western presence.
Just as, say Portugal's threat perception of Russia differs from that of Poland, it is only natural to have different levels of threat perception of Russia among Black Sea countries. Size matters, and most probably, Bulgaria and Romania have good reasons to be more fearful than Turkey. But it is not President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s supposedly good relations with his Russian counterpart Putin that shape Turkish policy in the Black Sea.
THIN LINE
There is a fine line between deterrence and provocation, according to Turkish officials. Treading this thin line is critical. A few days after the Russian attack to Ukraine started, Turkey activated Article 19 of the convention and closed the straits to “warring parties,” which essentially targeted Russian warships. According to Article 19, nonbelligerent warships have the right to transit. Turkey has asked its allies not to send warships to the Black Sea; an informal request that so far has been followed by all allies. Yet, the “informal” decision to close the Straits to all warships can be seen as an overstretch of Article 19.
Turkey wants to give the message that littoral countries should take ownership of regional issues and that an increased military presence by NATO carries the risk of escalation.
To emphasize the principle of regional ownership, together with Bulgaria and Romania, Turkey initiated the Black Sea Mine Countermeasure Task Group (BSMC). This joint task force, established in January 2024, is dedicated to clearing drifting sea mines in the Black Sea. So far, it has reportedly cleared around 150 mines, reflecting growing regional cooperation in maritime security.
For Romania and Bulgaria, it was important to secure the understanding that NATO’s assets and personnel “should” contribute to the BSMC. But so far, the contribution from countries such as the U.S., France and Canada appears to be limited to steps like sending an expert to one of the ships patrolling the sea.
Turkey is also trying to show some flexibility. While Turkey was said to block the passage of two minehunter ships donated to Ukraine by Britain, it appears that recently it has allowed one to go to Bulgaria instead of Ukraine. Another one is also expected to reach Bulgaria in a month.
