By Barçın Yinanç
“Turkey gives its children no chance to concern themselves with anything but itself,” said Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar, a prominent Turkish poet and novelist who died in 1962.
While the world was preoccupied with Donald Trump’s tariffs and the international media’s coverage focused on the reactions, Turkey was only discussing the opposition's call for an economic boycott implemented on April 2.
And as Trump was getting ready to reveal the tariffs for each country, Turkish Trade Minister Ömer Bolat chose to go shopping in a market rather than presiding over a meeting on the possible effects of Trump’s declaration of trade war.
The next day, on April 3, hours after Trump’s statement, which revealed a 10 percent tariff for Turkey, Bolat toured pro-government channels, appearing at least on three, with the claim that Turkish society did not abide by the boycott. His social media account, full of messages on how the boycott failed, did not have even one single message on Trump’s tariffs.
RIGHT TIMING
The Turkish economic bureaucracy was not caught unprepared for trade wars. A list of potential retaliation against the U.S. tariffs has been made ready; but Ankara will wait for the right timing, according to Sinan Ülgen, the director of think tank EDAM.
“The right timing should be to wait for what the EU will do. If the EU decided not to retaliate, Turkey would probably endorse that position and vice versa,” he told T24.
In the medium to long term, being part of a bloc will gain more importance, and the best way for Turkey to maximise its interests is to act together with the bloc it belongs to, according to Ülgen. And that bloc is the EU.
ŞİMŞEK’S BRUSSELS VISIT
In that respect, Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek’s trip to Brussels for a High-Level Economic Dialogue (HLED) between the EU and Turkey could not have come at a better moment, providing an opportunity to discuss trade wars. Nevertheless, the timing had a problematic aspect since it took place under the shadow of a deep democratic crisis in Turkey.
The HLED was held for the first time since 2019, when the EU suspended high-level dialogue on several issues, including the economy and energy, due to the tension in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Turkish democratic forces have several times called on the EU to maintain dialogue on certain issues, arguing that institutional engagement with Turkey would provide an incentive for the government to reverse democratic backsliding.
While these calls fell on deaf ears, it took Trump’s rebuke of Ukrainian leader Volodimir Zelenskyy in the Oval Office to get Turkey back on the EU’s radar, as it became important as a geostrategic asset.
Yet the hopes for normalization were short-lived as the country has seen the biggest demonstrations since 2013 following the detention and arrest of İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.
Initially, the EU chose to cancel some meetings at the bureaucratic level. It took Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos two weeks to decide to cancel her participation in the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, which was supposed to be followed by a visit to Ankara, which she also cancelled.
It is clear by now to many that if the government stopped short of appointing a trustee to the Istanbul municipality as well as to the CHP, that was due to the domestic protests which were followed by the crash of the Turkish lira.
WHAT’S BETTER?
The fragility of the Turkish economy is the government’s biggest weakness.
This presents an important dilemma: Would it be better if the EU had cancelled the “economic meeting” in Brussels or, on the contrary, has holding it served as a way to stop the government from taking even more drastic measures to oppress dissent?
It’s hard to tell, since it did not stop the government from reacting to those supporting the boycott. More than a dozen people, among them famous figures, were detained as part of an investigation into boycott call.
At any rate, the EU used the meeting to express “concerns regarding recent arrests and detentions of elected officials, members of civil society and media.”
“Vibrant democracies and the rule of law provide the strongest foundations for maintaining the confidence of international investors and preserving macroeconomic stability,” reads the statement made after the meeting.
The EU has also stressed that “Türkiye, as an EU candidate country and long-standing member of the Council of Europe, is expected to apply the highest democratic standards and practices.”
The meeting in Brussels was supposed to bring together high-level executives from Turkish and EU companies. Absent were Orhan Turan and Ömer Aras, leaders of the Turkish top business group TÜSİAD, since they are facing an investigation for criticizing economic policies. They could not attend the meeting in Brussels, as they are banned from leaving the country.
