After the Middle East, Russia is losing its standing in the Caucasus, reads the headline of the article penned by a prominent Turkish journalist who is an expert on Russian issues.
The article is referring to press reports that Armenia and Azerbaijan are close to an agreement on the Zangezur corridor which will also facilitate the signing of a permanent peace agreement between the two neighbors.
“If this news is right, this might lead to developments that will be against Russia and Iran,” wrote Hakan Aksay.
So, spotlights are currently turning to the Caucasus as the diplomatic rift between Azerbaijan and Russia is intensifying.
Baku’s assertive reaction towards Moscow marks a departure from the ruling Aliyev family’s traditionally cautious diplomacy with Moscow.
As Russian-Armenian relations have also deteriorated under the tenure of Nikol Pashinian, Georgia remains the only Caucasus country to have a pro-Russian government, yet the two countries have no diplomatic relations.
ANGERING RUSSIA OR NOT?
Another prominent observer of the Caucasus region argues that Aliyev and Pashinyan suffer from “Zelenskyy-fication syndrome.”
“Turkey’s rising influence in the Trans-Caucasus, Aliyev’s courage which he derives from the changes in the field since 2020, Pashinyan’s effort to escape from Russia and the U.S. intention to enter the corridor provokes Russia,” writes Fehim Taştekin, warning about the negative consequences of angering Moscow, as he recalls the wars in Georgia and Ukraine.
A former Turkish diplomat disagrees with Taştekin’s analogy as in his opinion there is no evidence of provoking Russia by Western interference.
Baku was extremely careful in not antagonizing Russia during the war in Ukraine, retired ambassador Halil Akıncı, who served in the region, told me. Akıncı believes Russia is taking preventive action against Baku, which decided not to bow down and retaliated.
Certainly, Baku’s self-confidence has been increasing ever since it took back Nagorno-Karabakh, thanks also to Turkish and Israeli support. No doubt, Russia is feeling sidelined from the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks and reacts by trying to exert its influence in both countries. And one has to also note that the U.S. and Europe have redirected their attention to a region they long neglected after the Russian attack on Ukraine.
Europeans have been proposing different formulas to overcome the stalemate over the control of the Zangezur corridor, a transport route on the Armenian-Iranian border linking mainland Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan enclave.
AZERBAIJAN SHIFTS ITS POSITION
Baku has recently shifted its position and joined Armenia in opposing a Russian presence in the corridor. Baku is said to have formally informed Moscow in June about its decision that it will no longer accept the clause in the 2020 ceasefire agreement that implicitly yields control to Russian forces in transit corridors.
Currently, both Yerevan and Baku appear to be ready to consider alternative proposals from Western interlocutors.
Initially, the U.S. showed little interest, but over the past two months, it has started coordinating with the EU and floated new ideas.
One such idea is to involve a third-party commercial company in managing transit issues through the Zangezur corridor.
Baku’s acceptance of a non-Russian alternative is said to have narrowed the gap with Yerevan.
Meanwhile, although Baku refrained from officially saying so, it believes Moscow is behind the recent domestic turmoil in Armenia.
Warnings that once fell on deaf ears in Baku that Pashinyan might be replaced by a pro-Russian leader who will derail the peace process appear to now find traction in Azerbaijan.
Aliyev’s earlier assessment—that time is on Baku's side—may be shifting.
The change in Aliyev’s attitude can perhaps explain the surprise historic visit of the Armenian leader to Ankara on June 20, upon the invitation of the Turkish president, who got the green light from the Azerbaijani leader for this historic meeting.
The decision for Aliyev and Pashinyan to meet in the United Arab Emirates on July 10 was taken in Ankara after Erdoğan’s separate talks with both leaders.
While the meeting in the UAE ended without a hoped-for breakthrough announcement, the expectation that a final peace agreement is soon to be finalized is growing.
“Russia’s malign activity both in Azerbaijan and in Armenia adds urgency to the peace process,” Zaur Shiriyev told The Economist. The window of opportunity is narrow. Missing it could throw the region once again into dangerous geopolitical uncertainty, according to the Baku-based expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“Representatives of an Armenian diaspora NGO asked to hold an online meeting with me, a sign that peace might be at the doorstep,” a Western ambassador told me.
