By Barçın Yinanç
Turkey was kicked out of the F-35 joint production program because of Russia during Trump’s presidency; can it be taken back because of Russia yet again during Trump’s presidency?
Let me explain.
Turkey was punished by the US Congress for its purchase of the Russian-made S-400 missile system. It is known that Trump signed the law halfheartedly in the last months of his first term.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine and Trump’s second term are changing the strategic scene, which might facilitate to solve the F-35 imbroglio.
“We will lift the CAATSA sanctions. It is not right to apply sanctions to a friendly and allied country,” said Trump, sitting next to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, ahead of their bilateral meeting before the NATO summit. Although he said he did not make up his mind on the sales of F-35 fighter jets before his departure, Turkish officials appear convinced that the administration is willing to solve the problem.
Yet the will of Trump is not enough, as he needs to convince a rather Turkey-sceptic Congress. Trump can open the way for the delivery of the 6 F-35s whose price had already been paid by Turkey. It appears a presidential waiver is enough to bypass Congress, and President Erdoğan said he is waiting for Trump to keep his word on this specific “delivery” issue.
The acquisition of additional F-35s would require the lifting of Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions, as well as the repeal of the “cease possession” provision included in the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act. Both steps would require securing the support of Congress.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine, as well as the US decision to draw down its forces in Europe, can facilitate the convincing.
CHANGING RHETORIC
The rhetoric of the bipartisan Congressional delegation that came to Ankara in the margins of the NATO summit suggested a change of heart towards Turkey.
“If there is an acceptable way to deal with the S-400 and the threat that poses to the technology in the F-35, and there is satisfactory agreement on the part of all parties about that, then I think having Türkiye back in the F-35 program would be a positive development, both for Türkiye and for the US,” said Senator Jeanne Shaheen who added she was among those penning the CAATSA.
In a Zoom meeting with members of the press, the senators’ statements indicated a willingness to consider the sale of fighter aircraft to Turkey as part of efforts to strengthen Europe’s defense posture against Russia.
'Türkiye is a major NATO contributor, and anything that we can do to provide them with the resources to be an even stronger adversary with regard to incursions by Russia in Europe, the better off we all are. And one of those is to have that tool, of the F-35,” said Senator Mike Rounds.
“But we still have questions to answer with respect to what's being proposed, and haven't gotten those answers. So we will wait and see what happens,' added Shaheen. She said Turkey’s contribution to NATO is appreciated despite concerns about democracy and “how this will play out in elections.”
“This is a Trans-Atlanticist delegation,” an expert commented, adding that Shaheen will be leaving the Congress in the mid term elections.
RACE AGAINST TIME
No doubt Ankara and Washington see a window of opportunity to solve this problem until the congressional elections in November, when Republicans are expected to lose a significant number of seats. It will be easier to convince Trump’s loyalists over a formula that will satisfy the criteria about the S-400s.
The threat perception from Russia as well as the new division of labor within NATO, is equally opening a window of opportunity for Turkey to present itself as an “indispensable” ally in the European defense architecture.
As European capitals committed to assume more responsibilities, Ankara aims at seizing the moment to increase military cooperation and integration in order to avoid being excluded from the European security landscape.
“Turkey does not just have NATO’s second biggest army. It has a battle-tested army,” said a former defense industry executive. In addition, the defense industry’s success is also due to the constant feedback that comes from battle zones, said the former executive, talking at a side event organized jointly by the Munich Security Forum and SETA.
“The infrastructure to work together is there. We [Turkey and EU] are used to working together. All of the industry people speak English. In fact there are many Turkish engineers working in German military start ups,” he added, in order to make a case for deeper cooperation between Turkey and the EU.
“Revive the Eurogroup in NATO to include net security providers based on measurable contributions,” said a former Turkish diplomat suggesting ways to move forward.
Speaking at the same event a former ambassador proposed a return to a structured EU–Turkey security and defense dialogue, beginning at the highest level.
There is a need for cross-catalyzation for the defense industry, he said.
“Fragmentation, duplication, rising costs and production capacity are real problems. Bilateral arrangements are good but scale wise are insufficient. Turkey can add value. Work should begin to rapidly devise a modern Turkey-EU Customs Union like structure, specifically for the defense industry. Such an arrangement, which could be ‘opt-in’ style, should include specific elements for financial cooperation, technology transfers, joint production and preferential trade provisions,” said the retired ambassador, speaking at the panel held under Chatham House rules.
However, the trust gap between Ankara and EU capitals remains one of the biggest obstacles in front of defense cooperation. Although Turkey’s growing democratic deficit has been totally ignored by European allies at the NATO summit, the lack of like-mindedness, and the question of “values” will keep overshadowing potential improvement of ties between Turkey and Europe.
