By Barçın Yinanç
According to some, NATO has to become more European in order to remain more Transatlantic.
The “Europeanization” of NATO will certainly be the key focus of the Ankara summit in July. But in the immediate short term, the most important mission of the summit has to be the message of unity; and for that a family photo with US President Donald Trump is a must.
The majority of member states have taken a breath of relief hearing US State Secretary Marco Rubio confirming Trump’s attendance to the summit.
Turkey is seen as scoring an early success by already securing Trump’s attendance.
If the key to a successful summit is Trump’s presence in Ankara, another one is him leaving a happy man, according to a European diplomat.
Last year, 5 percent was the magical number to make Trump happy. Alliance members agreed to commit to investing 5% of GDP annually on defense requirements by 2035.
This year it will be about how to spend the increased budget, which also translates as what allies will commit as their capabilities for more burden sharing.
As the US wants to redeploy, it wants the Alliance’s other members to assume more responsibilities, by putting more troops on the ground, and deploying more its assets on land, maritime and air theaters.
RUBIO URGES FOR MORE BURDEN SHARING
“I am the reasonable guy in the administration,” Rubio told his counterparts in NATO, according to an official knowledgeable with the deliberations within the Alliance. “You need to help me, otherwise I will lose my ability to influence the president,” said Rubio, asking members to commit more for burden sharing.
European members are ready to accommodate changes, yet they want a more orderly transition.
Trump announced he will pull out 5000 soldiers from Germany as he was angry with the German leader’s criticism while the decision to deploy 4000 additional soldiers to Poland was canceled only to be followed by a statement by Trump that he will send 5000 troops to Poland as he is on good terms with the country’s leader. Mixed signals are leaving Europeans dazed and confused.
In the meantime, while the US wants Europeans to rely on their own defense capabilities, it also wants them to buy US weapons, which remains another contradiction.
It appears that Secretary General Mark Rutte will work to convey the message of “urgency” to convince member states not to drag their feet to adapt to changes.
As was the case last year, Rutte will push for a short communique, where the Russian threat as well as support for Ukraine will take center stage. He will no doubt find a way to accommodate Turkey’s wishes to bring to the agenda threats emanating from the southern flank.
NATO’S SHORTCOMINGS ON DEMOCRATIC BACKSLIDING
Whether Ankara will get what it wants remains to be seen; yet securing Trump’s attendance is already a big victory for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, which also explains the timing for the decision of the absolute nullity blow against the CHP.
“Many thought this decision would come after the summit, but I always thought it would come beforehand,” said Seren Selvin Korkmaz, the director of İstanPOL Institute.
“Leaders are not going to protest the democratic backsliding in Turkey and they will obviously show up, and this occasion where the president will have photo opportunities with world leaders will be used to cover up all the domestic discussion and turmoil inside the country,” said Korkmaz.
It falls upon Turkey’s opposition to remind Western democracies that NATO is not simply a military/defense organization but also a political organisation.
The alliance describes itself as a community of countries committed to democracy, individual liberty, and the rule of law, not merely a military pact. While they will be gathering to show unity against Russia, they will do so in a country that has taken the decision to give a deadly blow to democracy, transitioning the Turkish system from competitive authoritarianism to full authoritarianism, joining Russia in that category.
“We are concerned but we have no leverage against Turkey and at any rate NATO is absolutely not the right framework for this matter” a European politician told Turkey in Depth.
“The debate surrounding Turkey’s role in NATO and Europe increasingly risks being reduced to a purely transactional framework: security cooperation without democratic convergence; strategic necessity without political trust; geopolitical pragmatism without shared values,” said a member from the main opposition CHP. “This is neither sustainable nor strategically wise,” he added, speaking at a closed door meeting on the NATO summit, organized by an Istanbul based think tank.
History teaches us that alliances are strongest not only when they share interests, but when they share institutional trust, democratic accountability, and political predictability, according to the opposition MP. “A Turkey detached from democratic norms may still remain geographically important. But a democratic Turkey becomes strategically transformative,” he added.
