By Barçın Yinanç
U.S. President Donald Trump’s telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Feb. 12 sent shockwaves throughout Europe.
“Everyone was expecting Trump to approach Putin; what shocked Europe was Trump’s positive attitude towards the Russian leader,” a Turkish diplomat told me.
“We both reflected on the Great History of our Nations and the fact that we fought so successfully together in World War II,” wrote Trump in his social media message, talking of Russia as an “ally” rather than as an opponent.
Then came the statement from the U.S. secretary of defense during a NATO meeting, where he said, “Strategic realities prevent the U.S. from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.”
Alarmed by these statements, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted European leaders in Paris in two separate meetings, as the Trump administration sidelined the continent by moving ahead with direct negotiations with Russia on the war in Ukraine.
While Turkey was excluded from both of the Paris meetings which took place on Feb. 17 and Feb. 19, representatives from Ukraine were also missing from the meeting between the U.S. and Russia which took place in Saudi Arabia on Feb. 18.
ZELENSKYY’S VISIT
On the day when U.S. and Russian delegations met in Riyad, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in Turkey for an official visit.
The fact that the leaders of the two countries excluded from crucial meetings came together in Ankara was a coincidence. Zelenskyy’s visit was planned long before. Still, it was an important occasion for both to send messages to those aiming to disregard them.
For some Turkish officials, France’s exclusion of Turkey is emblematic of Macron’s allergy to the growing influence of Ankara. “This must be a joke,” some say.
While Macron is pushing for European-led defense, excluding NATO’s second-biggest army, which not only has vast experience on the ground but is also led by a government willing to take action does not make sense.
TURKEY KEEPS COOL OVER PARIS EXCLUSION
Still, Ankara did not appear to be up in arms about missing a trip to Paris. Actually for some, it might even suit the interest of Ankara to be absent from an anti-Russian gathering as Turkey continues to hope to play a role in ending the war.
“Given the active diplomacy we have been pursuing for the past three years, our country will be an ideal host for potential talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S.,” said Erdoğan during the press conference with his Ukrainian counterpart.
“I expressed Türkiye’s strong support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence,” added Erdoğan.
His statements and the hospitality shown to Zelenskyy contradict Trump’s criticism of the Ukrainian leader.
Trump labeled Zelenskyy a “dictator without elections.” He said the war in Ukraine is “unlikely” to end with the full restoration of the country's 2014-era borders, while he closed the door to Kyiv’s entry to NATO.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov lauded Trump for saying that previous U.S. support of Ukraine's bid to join NATO was a major cause of the war in Ukraine.
Erdoğan was also among the leaders supporting Ukraine’s membership of the alliance. “Without a doubt, Ukraine deserves to be in NATO,” Erdogan said during Zelerskyy’s visit to Ankara in July 2023.
RISKS FOR TURKISH DIPLOMACY
Trump’s attempt to end the war in Ukraine falls in line with Ankara’s policy, yet his parroting many of Moscow's talking points about Ukraine does not bode well for Turkish diplomacy.
Turkey did not join the sanctions while Erdoğan maintained a dialogue with Putin. Turkey was accused at times both by Washington and other Western capitals of being an untrustworthy ally because of its balancing act between Kyiv and Moscow.
Ironically the same accusation is now being made by Europeans against Trump. The end of the war will save Turkey from Europe’s pressure to take action against Russia; and the normalization of trade will have a positive impact on the economy. Yet, a Russian leadership coming out of the war with boosted overconfidence thanks to Trump might weaken the hands of Ankara in its complicated bilateral ties with Moscow. That’s why keeping improved relations with both Washington but also with Europe will remain crucial for Turkey.
