By Barçın Yinanç
More countries regard Turkey as an ally, according to the Munich Security Report 2025, released ahead of the titular conference which will take place from Feb. 14 to Feb. 16.
The rate of people viewing Turkey as an ally, not a “threat,” increased in all of the 11 countries where the survey was held, except France.
Yet, experts on both countries believe the two capitals need to leave behind their differences as the “Trumpian world” compels these two assertive countries to work together. “The global agenda has changed after the U.S. elections, the two countries cannot leave their relations hostage to traditional points of friction,” said a Turkish expert based in the U.K.
Trump 2.0 represents a momentous turning point akin to 1945 or 1989, according to a Turkish expert based in Istanbul. “Turkey does not have the luxury of disassociating itself from its Western alliance while the West no longer has the luxury of alienating Turkey,” said the same expert.
WHAT DOES MACRON WANT?
French President Emmanuel Macron has had several face-to-face meetings with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan over the past two years, all initiated by the French side, according to French diplomats. “That speaks to our intention for a new chapter in our relations,” said a French official.
Following talks on the telephone or in person, statements made by the Elysee have constantly underlined France’s willingness to have a “positive agenda” with Turkey.
The exact nature of the “positive agenda’ France has in mind remains ambiguous.
A la carte engagement or a la carte cooperation will not get Ankara on board. A perfect example of “a la carte engagement” would be for instance asking for Turkish participation in the European Political Community while avoiding steps toward an improvement in Turkey-EU relations. Increasing dialogue for Black Sea cooperation within NATO while excluding Turkey from future European security architecture is another example of such a la carte cooperation scheme that France might have in mind.
RUSSIA: DEFINING FACTOR
How to address the Russian “question” in the absence of the U.S. stands as an important challenge requiring increased dialogue and engagement as a secession of hostilities is expected in the Ukraine war due to pressure from Washington.
European deterrence against Russia will be difficult to be effective without the engagement of non-EU countries like the U.K., Turkey, and Norway.
Yet, fearing exclusion, Turkey has always been wary of a potential EU grouping under NATO. But there is no longer talk of European Union strategic autonomy, argued a European expert, adding that a wider European perspective is being endorsed to strengthen European defense in preparation for a potentially diminishing U.S. role in the old continent. The shaping of Europe’s Russia strategy will set the new tone in Turkey’s relationship with the Western/European allies.
SYRIA: A TESTING GROUND
Meanwhile, Syria stands as another area to increase strategic cooperation between Turkey and Europe. It will be particularly a testing ground to see whether Ankara and Paris can get on the same page in regional issues, according to a French observer.
It was bold of French President Emmanuel Macron to call Syria’s interim president Ahmet Al-Sharaa to congratulate and invite him to France. As the memory of the ISIS terrorist attacks in France in 2015 is still fresh, Macron’s outreach to a man who has been affiliated with ISIS and Al-Qaeda in the past could potentially have been costly for Macron, according to a French expert.
Turkey wants EU sanctions lifted and a quick normalization between Syria and Europe, thus Macron’s move must have been appreciated by Ankara. Yet, instead of attending the conference organized by France in Paris on the Syrian transition on Feb. 13, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan chose to send his deputy Nuh Yılmaz. Fidan was scheduled to meet his French counterpart at the Munich Security Conference.
While the two capitals share the same goal of supporting the new authorities in Damascus, their approach to the “Kurdish” question might prove to be a potential headache between the two.
