By Barçın Yinanç
A few days after the new U.S. envoy to Germany took up office in Berlin in 2013, news broke out that Washington had been spying on German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s phone since 2002.
This was a huge scandal, overshadowing confidence between the two allies. “It took a year and a half to overcome that problem. When compared with the recent trust problems, handling that one appears like a child’s game,” said a former U.S. official, talking about U.S.-European relations.
He was speaking at the Brussels Forum of the German Marshall Fund which took place this week on the theme “Partnership Disrupted: How Can Transatlantic Cooperation Endure?”
LACK OF TRUST
The first part of the theme can also be applied to the Turkey - EU partnership. Attentive eyes would realize that I preferred to use EU rather than Europe, since many Turkish diplomats object to any title that pits Turkey against Europe on the basis that Turkey is Europe.
At any rate, the lack of trust stands as the most important reason behind the “disrupted partnership.”
The confidence crisis is critical since it will remain the main barrier in front of making use of the window of opportunity that the current geopolitical conjuncture offers to improve the relationship between Turkey and the European democratic family. Europe has been receiving some wake-up calls for some time.
The first wake-up call came with the Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022. But nine months later, Europe had woken up but was still not out of bed, according to Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the EU Commission.
It is not so easy to get out of bed after decades of tranquil sleep thanks to the security provided by the United States.
Currently, the Trump administration wants Europeans to spend more and to produce more in the defense industry.
Most U.S. allies seems set to accept in the next NATO Summit in the Hague, Trump’s demand that they invest 5% of GDP on defence, 3.5% on core military spending and 1.5% on the roads, bridges, airfields and sea ports needed to deploy armies more quickly.
But making a pledge is one thing, fulfilling the pledge is another.
The 2014 NATO Wales Summit saw member states commit to spending at least 2%. Maxime Prevot, the Belgium deputy prime minister, speaking at the forum in Brussels, the symbolic capital of Europe, confessed that Belgium’s five-month-old government had just recently agreed to increase its defense spending from 1.3 to 2 percent.
As the war in Ukraine has depleted stocks, Europe is in a race against time. With Turkey’s growing defense industry, Europe’s need for speedy action can provide an opportunity to cooperate.
EYEING FOR SAFE
And Ankara is currently eyeing the financial opportunities that the EU has been working on to boost the defense industry.
One such opportunity is SAFE (Security Action for Europe), a €150 billion loan program designed to boost joint European defense procurement and strengthen national capabilities.
There are different layers and conditions for Turkey to benefit from SAFE.
The financial instrument provides a 45-year loan with a 10-year grace period. The interest rate is expected to be around 3%, which according to Turkish diplomats will not be attractive for countries such as Germany or Nordic countries.
“It will rather be appealing for the Eastern European countries as well as Ukraine and it aims at EU interoperability,” a Turkish official told me.
The SAFE scheme mandates that contracts must source at least 65% of their value from the EU, EEA (European Economic Area) countries, and Ukraine. The remaining 35% can be sourced from third countries, including Turkey.
Turkey will need to couple with EU or EEA countries or Ukraine in order to buy weapons system using the SAFE scheme.
CAN TURKISH COMPANIES PROCURE?
When it comes to procurement from Turkish companies, things get much more complicated. Turkish companies with headquarters in the EU, EEA countries or Ukraine might find it easier to use funding under SAFE. But the country partnering the Turkish firm needs to guarantee that the Turkish firm “does not contravene the security and defense interests of the Union.” The agreement based on this particular type of partnership would require qualified majority voting.
In case of procurement from Turkish companies based in Turkey, a consensus is required which will prove rather hard due to Greece and Greek Cyprus.
Member states are required to provide their intentions about their use of the SAFE scheme in less than six months. This gives very little time for the Turkish defense industry to seek partnerships, which would likely involve Ukraine, as well as Eastern European countries like Poland or Romania.
At any rate, experts believe the lack of trust in the Erdoğan government, viewed as an unreliable ally, stands in the way of meaningful military cooperation, strengthening European security architecture as the old continent needs to adapt to new realities on the ground.
