By Barçın Yinanç
The informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers, which will take place in Antalya on May 14, will put the international spotlight on Turkey as it will be the first meeting attended by Western leaders after the arrest of the Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu on March 23.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will attend the Antalya meeting, which will lay the groundwork for the June summit—President Donald Trump’s first appearance at the alliance since beginning his second term.
The first draft of the June 24-25 summit is expected to be negotiated in Antalya. As Trump has reacted to several-page-long summit declarations during his first term, NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte has asked allies to work on a few-paragraph-long statement.
In order to prevent Trump’s potential outburst, allies will pledge to spend more and to produce more weapons. Many expect Trump to react to allies, which, despite his warnings during his first term, have not increased their defense spending significantly.
TURKEY’S RESERVATIONS
Meanwhile, the wording on Ukraine and Russia might prove difficult since some of the allies prefer harsher language on Russia in order to justify the increase in defense spending in the eyes of their public.
The U.S., however, might oppose tougher phrasing, depending on the status of its bilateral discussions with Russia and ongoing negotiations over a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.
The meeting in Antalya would provide an important venue for the so-called coalition of the willing to review mechanisms for security guarantees for Ukraine in case of a ceasefire.
Turkey does not want to put boots on the grounds without Russia’s consent. Yet, it wants to be included in the talks among the coalition of the willing, which includes countries like the U.K. and France. Turkey is said to be willing to take more responsibilities on the Black Sea as part of efforts to support Ukraine.
DEEPER ENGAGEMENT IS ON HOLD
Trump’s unexpectedly fast and positive treatment of Russia has opened the way for an engagement between Ankara and the European capitals. Had Istanbul Mayor İmamoğlu not been arrested, engagement could have moved faster and deeper.
European capitals opted to keep their reaction low to what the Turkish opposition calls a “political coup” as they are contemplating how to make use of Turkey’s army and its booming defense industry.
Starting talks to update the customs union and visa liberalization was on the agenda prior to March 19, but these issues are now off the table after the arrest of İmamoğlu.
Turning a blind eye to democratic backsliding appears to be an important reward for Ankara. After excluding Turkish foreign ministers from its Gymnich meetings for over a decade, the EU again invited Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to the latest gathering in Poland while his ministry lashed back at European Parliament for adopting a decision to keep accession process to remain frozen.
Meanwhile, it was not clear whether Turkish President Recep Tayip Erdoğan would attend the European Political Community (EPC) summit in Albania.
While Ankara has a distanced stance to EPC, since it is framed as an anti- Russian platform, Erdoğan might opt to go to prove he remain an important leader in the eyes of Europe despite the domestic accusations that he is behind the decision to jail İmamoğlu as Istanbul mayor is his most serious challenger.
